tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19563835072347673402024-02-21T00:25:42.130-05:00Monkey Throw DartMonkey Throw Dart is an informational site for traders and investors who are looking for a trading strategy that really works. Using a unique trend-following system that has back-tested with a 62% average annual return for the last five years, 2010 will be the year that I actually trade this method. I call this the Cheetum Market Indicator 2.0 (CMI 2.0).Unknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger518125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1956383507234767340.post-52777831550157425072013-12-21T09:06:00.000-05:002013-12-21T09:06:26.104-05:00The End<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEheoOK6xMZNyrJsetCgea9AnqCuo-HRWXybu_fMyCymhM_lEmOXCWjtfztJzzKgKh32Ma9hhsIu7haRGyU-f806qgD2b6qS-Z40FSoVtBUiEUHj-A3HDaYKoCoDOiexhiSdwbdAEzjN4JQ/s1600/the+end.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="480" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEheoOK6xMZNyrJsetCgea9AnqCuo-HRWXybu_fMyCymhM_lEmOXCWjtfztJzzKgKh32Ma9hhsIu7haRGyU-f806qgD2b6qS-Z40FSoVtBUiEUHj-A3HDaYKoCoDOiexhiSdwbdAEzjN4JQ/s640/the+end.jpg" width="640" /></a></div>
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<strong></strong> </div>
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<strong></strong> </div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<strong>Stocks</strong></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<a href="http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/">http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/</a></div>
<a href="http://www.blogger.com/goog_188074768">
</a><a href="http://finance.yahoo.com/">http://finance.yahoo.com/</a><br />
<a href="http://www.blogger.com/goog_188074768">
</a><a href="http://finviz.com/">http://finviz.com/</a><br />
<a href="http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/index.html">http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/index.html</a><br />
<a href="http://www.blogger.com/goog_188074774">
</a><a href="http://www.automated-trading-system.com/">http://www.automated-trading-system.com/</a><br />
<a href="http://www.blogger.com/goog_188074774">
</a><a href="http://www.stableinvesting.com/">http://www.stableinvesting.com/</a><br />
<a href="http://www.blogger.com/goog_188074774">
</a><a href="http://www.buyupside.com/index.html">http://www.buyupside.com/index.html</a><br />
<a href="http://www.blogger.com/goog_188074774">
</a><a href="http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3021-tradingdiary2.html">http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3021-tradingdiary2.html</a><br />
<a href="http://www.blogger.com/goog_188074774">
</a><a href="http://www.earningswhispers.com/Default.asp?">http://www.earningswhispers.com/Default.asp?</a><br />
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<o:p> </o:p></div>
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<o:p></o:p><strong>Options</strong></div>
<br />
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<a href="http://www.cboe.com/">http://www.cboe.com/ </a></div>
<a href="http://www.blogger.com/goog_188074779">
</a><a href="http://www.cboe.com/framed/IVolframed.aspx?content=http%3a%2f%2fcboe.ivolatility.com%2fcalc%2findex.j%3fcontract%3dCD96FB77-FA22-412D-A19B-4704BA5C664C&sectionName=SEC_TRADING_TOOLS&title=CBOE%20-%20IVolatility%20Services">http://www.cboe.com/framed/IVolframed.aspx?content=http%3a%2f%2fcboe.ivolatility.com%2fcalc%2findex.j%3fcontract%3dCD96FB77-FA22-412D-A19B-4704BA5C664C&sectionName=SEC_TRADING_TOOLS&title=CBOE%20-%20IVolatility%20Services</a><br />
<a href="http://www.blogger.com/goog_188074779">
</a><a href="http://www.optionistics.com/f/stock_prices?symbol=ctsh">http://www.optionistics.com/f/stock_prices?symbol=ctsh</a><br />
<a href="http://www.blogger.com/goog_188074779">
</a><a href="http://www.optionsprofitcalculator.com/">http://www.optionsprofitcalculator.com/</a><br />
<a href="http://www.blogger.com/goog_188074779">
</a><a href="http://www.thebluecollarinvestor.com/">http://www.thebluecollarinvestor.com/</a><br />
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<o:p> </o:p></div>
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<o:p></o:p><strong>Stuff</strong></div>
<br />
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<a href="http://consultingbyrpm.com/blog">http://consultingbyrpm.com/blog</a></div>
<a href="http://www.blogger.com/goog_188074781">
</a><a href="http://www.salientpartners.com/epsilontheory/">http://www.salientpartners.com/epsilontheory/</a><br />
<a href="http://www.blogger.com/goog_188074781">
</a><a href="http://xtremelyun-pcandunrepentant.blogspot.com/">http://xtremelyun-pcandunrepentant.blogspot.com/</a><br />
<a href="http://www.blogger.com/goog_188074781">
</a><a href="http://www.imdb.com/">http://www.imdb.com/<o:p></o:p></a><br />
<a href="http://www.blogger.com/goog_188074781">
</a><a href="http://themonetaryfuture.blogspot.com/">http://themonetaryfuture.blogspot.com/</a><br />
<a href="http://www.blogger.com/goog_188074781">
</a><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/">http://www.zerohedge.com/</a><br />
<a href="http://www.blogger.com/goog_188074781">
</a><a href="http://www.jamesaltucher.com/">http://www.jamesaltucher.com/</a><br />
<a href="http://www.blogger.com/goog_188074781">
</a><a href="http://www.npr.org/blogs/money/">http://www.npr.org/blogs/money/</a><br />
<a href="http://www.blogger.com/goog_188074781">
</a><a href="http://www.davemanuel.com/ ">http://www.davemanuel.com/<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></a><br />
<a href="http://www.blogger.com/goog_188074781">
</a><a href="http://www.thevenusproject.com/">http://www.thevenusproject.com/</a><br />
<a href="http://www.blogger.com/goog_188074781">
</a><a href="http://www.positivityblog.com/">http://www.positivityblog.com/</a><br />
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<o:p> </o:p></div>
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<o:p></o:p><strong>Research</strong></div>
<br />
<a href="http://www.blogger.com/goog_188074783">http://www.tradingeconomics.com/</a><br />
<a href="http://www.blogger.com/goog_188074783">
</a><a href="http://preterhuman.net/index.php">http://preterhuman.net/index.php</a><br />
<a href="http://www.blogger.com/goog_188074783">
</a><a href="http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/">http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/</a><br />
<a href="http://www.blogger.com/goog_188074783">
</a><a href="http://forums.stockfetcher.com/sfforums/index.php">http://forums.stockfetcher.com/sfforums/index.php</a><br />
<a href="http://www.blogger.com/goog_188074783">
</a><a href="http://flowingdata.com/">http://flowingdata.com/</a><br />
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<o:p> </o:p></div>
Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1956383507234767340.post-55953080124327432042013-12-17T13:20:00.002-05:002013-12-17T13:20:51.849-05:00Happy Holidays from the Federal Reserve<br />
<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiKK_FAez-65PL_4PadxQZZaL1GoJLgOyG2w7sNPSGdRW5Sl1UFuivecJ37XizPaud65E3KzYuXVC6ssU0z70CD_DjgQGnhj-hH3deyhFx-9_es-N5rR_VXTqvWnRNt_FSeSvwmJ1qWUhM/s1600/fedcard2013.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="310" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiKK_FAez-65PL_4PadxQZZaL1GoJLgOyG2w7sNPSGdRW5Sl1UFuivecJ37XizPaud65E3KzYuXVC6ssU0z70CD_DjgQGnhj-hH3deyhFx-9_es-N5rR_VXTqvWnRNt_FSeSvwmJ1qWUhM/s640/fedcard2013.jpg" width="640" /></a></div>
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Still seems a bit smug. Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1956383507234767340.post-48512651633411739132013-12-12T09:24:00.001-05:002013-12-12T09:25:27.497-05:00Thamsanqa Signs Fed-Speak?<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhl0RBONGZ9RkCOy90z_8PeM9FQSjZqJ9aMJbrJ2vQ_1kspYu9eNlloJ9u38ayKr-MbD5tsJFoEuvoA9T66f398i2LjP8b3bEZLzK8ckl06KmhOJQmgEA1R4-3ZlVdwX7DRFUpKxMe7m54/s1600/interpreter.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhl0RBONGZ9RkCOy90z_8PeM9FQSjZqJ9aMJbrJ2vQ_1kspYu9eNlloJ9u38ayKr-MbD5tsJFoEuvoA9T66f398i2LjP8b3bEZLzK8ckl06KmhOJQmgEA1R4-3ZlVdwX7DRFUpKxMe7m54/s1600/interpreter.png" /></a></div>
Say wha?<br />
<br />
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At first I thought that <span lang="EN" style="mso-ansi-language: EN;">Thamsanqa Jantjie, interpreter to the stars, was telling the batter to
bunt.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Shortly after, I discovered that
he was describing the method by which the Federal Reserve creates money out of
nothing.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>A Nobel Prize may be in order.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
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<span lang="EN" style="mso-ansi-language: EN;"><o:p> </o:p></span></div>
<span lang="EN" style="mso-ansi-language: EN;">Does Homer Simpson
still work for the Secret Service?</span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh1Qpsfzg2KBbzqhtag0NXiAY2d7XK2DS84U7vcu_8dlgXx3ebVLZ0E7SQL1HvcVMO4DRJznOfC5RmLQd79Oil5p72CbrH4Hqi73WJHymlBzRxDdyQKLab6lSinlQrHlq_VTJF17mwzXL0/s1600/sleeping+homer.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="138" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh1Qpsfzg2KBbzqhtag0NXiAY2d7XK2DS84U7vcu_8dlgXx3ebVLZ0E7SQL1HvcVMO4DRJznOfC5RmLQd79Oil5p72CbrH4Hqi73WJHymlBzRxDdyQKLab6lSinlQrHlq_VTJF17mwzXL0/s200/sleeping+homer.jpg" width="200" /></a></div>
<span lang="EN" style="mso-ansi-language: EN;"></span><br />
<span lang="EN" style="mso-ansi-language: EN;"></span><br />
Related links:<br />
<br />
<a href="http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2013/12/12/mandela-sign-language-interpreter-thamsanqa-jantjie/3995875/">http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2013/12/12/mandela-sign-language-interpreter-thamsanqa-jantjie/3995875/</a><br />
<br />
<a href="http://www.ncpa.org/pub/ba611">http://www.ncpa.org/pub/ba611</a>Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1956383507234767340.post-11141261079901297872013-12-06T16:55:00.001-05:002013-12-06T17:05:52.129-05:00Here We Go Again: NAMG, and CLDS<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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<![endif]--><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span lang="EN" style="color: black; mso-ansi-language: EN;">Here we go again<br />
She's back in town again<br />
I'll take her back again<br />
One more time</span></i><br />
<br />
I had received an investor report in the tree mail a few months ago, and just receive one yesterday so I thought I would document, once again, why these fancy brochures should go directly from the tree mail to the circular file. That's the file that the trash guy empties on a daily basis.<br />
<br />
Whoever writes these reports can talk a starving dog off a meat wagon, sell ice to Eskimos, and peel a monkey away from his banana stash. These creative writers are true masters of the "<a href="http://www.thereformedbroker.com/2013/05/22/land-of-the-lost/">Straight Line" pitch book.</a><br />
<br />
Let's see what could potential make me a very wealthy chimp this time:<br />
<br />
Cloud Security (CLDS) <br />
The report states, <br />
<br />
<i><span style="color: blue;">"NSA calls cyber crime the biggest criminal enterprise of all time, making CLDS a massive profit opportunity!"</span></i><br />
<i><span style="color: blue;"></span></i><br />
and <br />
<br />
<i><span style="color: blue;">"$9,000 in CLDS could leap to past $250,000!"</span></i><br />
<i><span style="color: blue;"></span></i><br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg-34_ckrSHopjgF9wWunQfL_zZ4X1Izmo-qhysbPCyF5Qms1Qqzo3-X4YQr0XJ0eIV0foUbzltGXjh6RB1oj2QDIFbaH7NdlWe1wnA44J_Vh8smUQa_lpRLV2G8nPTye9l8AhD7O3HeLY/s1600/chart+clds.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="231" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg-34_ckrSHopjgF9wWunQfL_zZ4X1Izmo-qhysbPCyF5Qms1Qqzo3-X4YQr0XJ0eIV0foUbzltGXjh6RB1oj2QDIFbaH7NdlWe1wnA44J_Vh8smUQa_lpRLV2G8nPTye9l8AhD7O3HeLY/s400/chart+clds.png" width="400" /></a></div>
<br />
Well, I have to give them credit, it takes a criminal to know one, and who know cybercrime better than the NSA?<br />
<br />
Looks like there was a little upside here when I received the report, but the rest of the potential upside is all downside. Can pump and dump be considered a cybercrime?<br />
<br />
<i>Here we go again<br />The phone will ring again<br />I'll be her fool again<br />One more time</i><br />
<i></i><br />
What about the report I just received yesterday?<br />
<br />
North American Oil and Gas (NAMG)<br />
<br />
The report states, <br />
<br />
<i><span style="color: blue;">"A Southern California oil boom is taking shape that could make nimble investors (like you) incredibly rich!"</span></i><br />
<i><span style="color: blue;"></span></i><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh_WpQ2YT3VEqtnaip7r1cRCzwcajTHZeAu983Rjio_-pom1C034sBpDRh4ki_tR1zZs8AXJeh7QElj0LzPKZ22pC3-eCLZfkO_KIhE2H5Czw8xuTsxeVj1AgsgveDnnJyhWhza53rPKCA/s1600/chart+namg.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="231" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh_WpQ2YT3VEqtnaip7r1cRCzwcajTHZeAu983Rjio_-pom1C034sBpDRh4ki_tR1zZs8AXJeh7QElj0LzPKZ22pC3-eCLZfkO_KIhE2H5Czw8xuTsxeVj1AgsgveDnnJyhWhza53rPKCA/s400/chart+namg.png" width="400" /></a></div>
<br />
<i><span style="color: blue;"></span></i><br />
Wow! "Nimble" is the word. Look at the multiple pumps (peaks) and dumps (valleys) on this charts. Looks more like an EKG of Southern California's last earthquake. I'm a little insulted that I didn't receive this report until the last push before the death spiral into the tar pit. <br />
<br />
<i>I've been there before<br />And I'll try it again<br />But any fool knows<br />That there's no way to win</i><br />
<br />
<i>Here we go again<br />She'll break my heart again<br />I'll play the part again<br />One more time</i> <br />
<br />
<iframe allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" src="//www.youtube-nocookie.com/embed/t1bDniBj-C8?rel=0" width="420"></iframe>
<br />
<a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t1bDniBj-C8">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t1bDniBj-C8</a><br />
<br />
<i>Get past the commercial at the beginning of this video. A combination of Ray Charles, Billy Preston, and an always photogenic Nora Jones is worth the wait.</i> Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1956383507234767340.post-83432263089149562052013-12-05T15:28:00.001-05:002013-12-05T15:28:33.055-05:00Chart GazingMarket Capitalization to GDP<br />
<br />
<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjndzY9YiwW2Yj5Vtjicn21RpkQjjvKTyVrxFnWwwP50UX4Co3A4HDbRFXoCexji1OINaVzX1n8e7QcpJCtvRG484BDOgpRD4-b2JyefxpxZ-HB3dj80xKcDJLCTW-RmlcXFLUj2s5lO8I/s1600/chart+mkt+cap+vs+gdp.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="256" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjndzY9YiwW2Yj5Vtjicn21RpkQjjvKTyVrxFnWwwP50UX4Co3A4HDbRFXoCexji1OINaVzX1n8e7QcpJCtvRG484BDOgpRD4-b2JyefxpxZ-HB3dj80xKcDJLCTW-RmlcXFLUj2s5lO8I/s640/chart+mkt+cap+vs+gdp.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg2SIiG2ztDYcf5nIHJnPzuFdJRhUCqfgZeR6Vjxk3LsbHrypDqOMj_D43bq-Fvd2s6bE09Gi8kA-b6aHQoZbvbNPyEVIFUmFdtqj2Dt-PjxDIdCeozfPtyplFtJECvYrVSPwvqJsBxBBc/s1600/chart+sp.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="212" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg2SIiG2ztDYcf5nIHJnPzuFdJRhUCqfgZeR6Vjxk3LsbHrypDqOMj_D43bq-Fvd2s6bE09Gi8kA-b6aHQoZbvbNPyEVIFUmFdtqj2Dt-PjxDIdCeozfPtyplFtJECvYrVSPwvqJsBxBBc/s640/chart+sp.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<br />
<a href="http://www.vectorgrader.com/indicators/market-cap-gdp">http://www.vectorgrader.com/indicators/market-cap-gdp</a><br />
<br />
_____________________________________________________________<br />
<br />
<br />
Shiller PE ratio for the S&P 500. Price earnings ratio is based on average inflation-adjusted earnings from the previous 10 years, known as the Cyclically Adjusted PE Ratio (CAPE Ratio), Shiller PE Ratio, or PE 10<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhFh9gpeAlrz-Leid9_kWMCwwasr2eXUcvwsU9HNH2QZJIx6Ggx8rUkiyxNzbnef5IBWt_u5WilhqMiG1CHe_j49fr-Xe1hPH6zvwl1z2mrJIvaTeW1-_V9nLbf5ssSUmYgzE5ArMyII3k/s1600/chart+shiller+cape.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="314" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhFh9gpeAlrz-Leid9_kWMCwwasr2eXUcvwsU9HNH2QZJIx6Ggx8rUkiyxNzbnef5IBWt_u5WilhqMiG1CHe_j49fr-Xe1hPH6zvwl1z2mrJIvaTeW1-_V9nLbf5ssSUmYgzE5ArMyII3k/s640/chart+shiller+cape.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<a href="http://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe/">http://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe/</a><br />
<br />
________________________________________________________<br />
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<br />
<a href="http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2013/10/nyse-margin-debt-at-record-high/">http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2013/10/nyse-margin-debt-at-record-high/</a><br />
<br />
<br />
<strong>Just looking.</strong><br />
<br />
_________________________________________________________<br />
<br />
Ever seen <a href="http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/">Ritholtz'</a> comment section "instruction"?<br />
<br />
<em><span style="color: blue;">Please use the comments to demonstrate your own ignorance, unfamiliarity with empirical data and lack of respect for scientific knowledge. Be sure to create straw men and argue against things I have neither said nor implied. If you could repeat previously discredited memes or steer the conversation into irrelevant, off topic discussions, it would be appreciated. Lastly, kindly forgo all civility in your discourse . . . you are, after all, anonymous.</span></em><br />
<em><span style="color: blue;"></span></em><br />
<span style="color: black;">Is that an example of sarcasm, or reverse psychology? Reverse sarcasm? Sarcastic psychology? Good stuff, either way.</span><br />
<em><span style="color: blue;"></span></em><br />
Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1956383507234767340.post-63558606402258878012013-12-01T23:24:00.002-05:002013-12-01T23:24:51.103-05:00December: A Knight in Shining Armor?<br />
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December has a fairly good record for staying in positive
territory.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>With a year like 2013,<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>who would be crazy enough to bet against a
strong finish? </div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhCuH0GIFJKPw7TDyjXEYWf30q8cqls9Q7eIGASfoXAEnkZcChaq4j9Ej49zvLCXAhoaasAQPbsv0Mp7JUOigJTqwXIvJoGi0LSt0W53msflwndqb6MrWvS-_x6Y_RYX7OTFZ2h8evuSmY/s1600/dec+history.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="361" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhCuH0GIFJKPw7TDyjXEYWf30q8cqls9Q7eIGASfoXAEnkZcChaq4j9Ej49zvLCXAhoaasAQPbsv0Mp7JUOigJTqwXIvJoGi0LSt0W53msflwndqb6MrWvS-_x6Y_RYX7OTFZ2h8evuSmY/s640/dec+history.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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19 out of the last 23 years have had gains.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Since I almost nailed my October prediction, I'll
venture a guess that the markets will fall 1% by the end of<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>the year.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>No point in me switching sides at this late stage.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Stubborn and contrary, yes, but apparently I
have learned much from the Black Knight...<br />
<br />
<iframe allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" src="//www.youtube-nocookie.com/embed/zKhEw7nD9C4" width="420"></iframe>
<br />
<br />
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<a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zKhEw7nD9C4">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zKhEw7nD9C4</a></div>
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<em>"It's just a flesh wound."<o:p></o:p></em></div>
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Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1956383507234767340.post-70698385891835203222013-11-28T23:45:00.000-05:002013-11-29T00:09:29.389-05:00A Banzai Holiday<i>Destroy the image and you will break the enemy.</i><br />
<b>~Shaolin Abbott, Enter the Dragon</b><br />
<br />
<i>Let’s stop those damned pictures. I don’t care so much what the papers write about me — my constituents can’t read, but damn it, they can see pictures.</i><br />
~<b> William Marcy “Boss” Tweed</b><br />
<br />
If you don't know William Banzai, you might want to check out some of his holiday "cheer". This prolific visual master of political and social commentary, and Photoshop maestro, will make you laugh, learn, wonder, and remind you that the devil is in the details. Whenever I try to <a href="http://monkeythrowdart.blogspot.com/2012/11/vive-le-twinkie.html">turn a turkey into a Twinkie</a>, or photograph<a href="http://monkeythrowdart.blogspot.com/2013/10/deja-vu-doo-at-fed.html"> the Fed "chairmen" at the prom</a>, the inspiration is all Banzai.<br />
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<br />
The <a href="http://williambanzai7.blogspot.com/">williambanzai7.blog is here</a> although it might be worth checking out the <a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/blogs/williambanzai7">full Banzai and commentary at Zerohedge.</a>Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1956383507234767340.post-88284805099955778002013-11-27T12:10:00.000-05:002013-11-27T18:54:03.594-05:00Monkey Makes Plans and Mr. Market Laughs<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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<![endif]--><i>The wheel is turning and you can't slow down<br />You can't let go and you can't hold on<br />You can't go back and you can't stand still<br />If the thunder don't get you then the lightning will</i><br />
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~Lyrics, The Wheel</div>
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By the end of last year, I had the new "add-on"
completed for the CMI 4.0.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The Cheetum
Market Indicator 4.0 would now become the "MensaMonkey", the version
of a market timing method that would outperform the market and put some
serious distance between the five-year performance of a monkey created program
and the S&P500. </div>
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The "add-on' was a longer term signal generator that is
used as a hedge. It was intended to put the "brakes on" under specific market conditions.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This would be
coupled with a trend-following system that was capable of out-performing the
market over the last few years.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>A
reduction in risk with a slight reduction in reward is a great trade-off when
playing both sides of the market.</div>
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As it turned out, the hedge I was looking for worked great,
but unfortunately these longer term "risk-on" signals overwhelmed
the short-term trend following signals, and as you can see the rest is history.</div>
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Looking back at my research, the limited data available for
construction of<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>the longer term signal,
or hedge, seemed to be the culprit.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Haste makes waste, and some of the deadly trading system
"sins" listed in the previous post had re-surfaced. It's possible to
get away with using limited data for a while but eventually the weakness in the system is
exposed by the ebb and flow of the market.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The 2012 market timing method (CMI 4.0), if
left alone, would have handled this years up-trend quite easily. This proves
that sometimes additions are really subtractions.
</div>
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It ain't over 'till the fat monkey sings, but with a month to
go and eleven months of muted MensaMonkey performance, it is unlikely that the
final result will look much different than it does now.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></div>
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</xml><![endif]--></span><br />
<a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QzGWYShgmfk">http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QzGWYShgmfk</a><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"><a href="http://www.blogger.com/null">
</a><a href="http://www.blogger.com/null"> </a></span></div>
Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1956383507234767340.post-21278673278191936452013-11-24T15:09:00.000-05:002013-11-24T18:10:13.335-05:00Plan the Trade, Trade the Goat<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">I can saw a woman in two<o:p></o:p></i><br />
<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">But you won't want to
look in the box when I'm through<o:p></o:p></i><br />
<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">I can make love
disappear<o:p></o:p></i><br />
<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">For my next trick I'll
need a volunteer<o:p></o:p></i><br />
<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p></o:p></i><br />
<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i>~Lyrics, For My Next Trick I'll Need A Volunteer<br />
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<o:p></o:p><br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi5xkKmjXA4rdZsiIQcxIEsX9RafxyFTmOLe194cE7JWb86hLnMst3fSLSwBqti-oromYugbswuJUvNP6UYTPQ9qwZe0W2WK5e4pKurfCijDurKG0n9im9LKh86DOhgsJLOSkAvpypmRms/s1600/MontyHall.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="165" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi5xkKmjXA4rdZsiIQcxIEsX9RafxyFTmOLe194cE7JWb86hLnMst3fSLSwBqti-oromYugbswuJUvNP6UYTPQ9qwZe0W2WK5e4pKurfCijDurKG0n9im9LKh86DOhgsJLOSkAvpypmRms/s200/MontyHall.jpg" width="200" /></a></div>
<o:p> </o:p></div>
The Monty Hall Problem<br />
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<i><span lang="EN" style="mso-ansi-language: EN;">Suppose you're
on a game show, and you're given the choice of three doors: Behind one door is
a car; behind the others, goats. You pick a door, say No. 1, and the host,
who knows what's behind the doors, opens another door, say No. 3, which
has a goat. He then says to you, "Do you want to pick door
No. 2?" Is it to your advantage to switch your choice?<o:p></o:p></span></i></div>
<br />
<iframe allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" src="//www.youtube-nocookie.com/embed/vWuQVpBeqLs?rel=0" width="560"></iframe>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<i><span lang="EN" style="mso-ansi-language: EN;"><o:p> </o:p></span></i><span lang="EN" style="mso-ansi-language: EN; mso-bidi-font-style: italic;"><a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vWuQVpBeqLs">http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vWuQVpBeqLs<o:p></o:p></a></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
The answer (and there is only one answer) is that <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">it <u>is</u> to your advantage</b> to
switch your choice. A good enough explanation comes from <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monty_Hall_problem">Wikipedia</a>, and more
detailed proofs are available on the internet.</div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<o:p> <em>C</em></o:p><em><span lang="EN" style="mso-ansi-language: EN;">ontestants who switch have a 2/3 chance of
winning the car, while contestants who stick with their initial choice have only a 1/3 chance. One way to
see this is to notice that, 2/3 of the time, the initial choice of the player
is a door hiding a goat. When that is the case, the host is forced to open the
other goat door, and the remaining closed door hides the car.
"Switching" only fails to give the car when the player picks the
"right" door (the door hiding the car) to begin with. But, of course,
that will only happen 1/3 of the time.</span><span lang="EN"> </span><o:p></o:p></em></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
Even after an explanation, those not familiar with the laws
of probability and chance sometimes don't get it.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I can tell by either that glazed-eye look, or
a nod of the head and a "yes" which means, " I don't
understand".<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Some stubbornly stick
to their initial (and wrong) assumption that it makes no difference if offered
to switch their choice and select another door.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The <em>"if it
walks like a duck and quacks like a duck, it must be a duck"</em> logic,
usually stated with conviction, does not hold water. That's unfortunate
because ducks need water.<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjsEwjmQBW7CXMtNgtImDFBxO14rrbQ-87s9oogKi9fglDeDm5o2qo6lqvoqUivZRTkRQrtaUQl6UVnUHG02slFkNEuXu2kUKYnfVErcL1adS2Ws545q-7hCfSTZJNbO4acKjqZznuKuJE/s1600/floating+duck.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjsEwjmQBW7CXMtNgtImDFBxO14rrbQ-87s9oogKi9fglDeDm5o2qo6lqvoqUivZRTkRQrtaUQl6UVnUHG02slFkNEuXu2kUKYnfVErcL1adS2Ws545q-7hCfSTZJNbO4acKjqZznuKuJE/s1600/floating+duck.jpg" /></a></div>
</div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
Since I believe that the best teachers are the one's who
know what it's like <u>not</u> to understand, I usually try to re-state the
Monty Hall problem using 100 doors.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Behind
one door is a car, behind the 99 other doors are goats.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The contestant picks one, then Monty Hall
opens 98 of the doors, and then asks the contestant if he would like to
switch.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>That usually does the trick.</div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
Of course, if that fails, just whip out the deck of cards and
run through multiple Joker-Joker-Ace scenarios, and the magic of the laws of
probability will appear before unbelieving eyes.<o:p></o:p></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
The world can be a very counter-intuitive place.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Events occur that are <span style="color: black;">contrary to what intuition or common sense would indicate</span>. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>For trading plans, or attempting to solve real
life riddles, using assumptions based on skewed data, circumstantial evidence,
curve fitting, observational selection bias, over-optimization, gambler's
fallacy, or emotion is no substitute for cold hard facts or solid confirmation that
the laws of probability and chance will work in your favor under any
condition.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Anything else is just a
guess.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But that's okay, best guesses are
necessary sometimes... as long as an open mind is close at hand.</div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
You can "trade the plan" <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><u>without</u></b> all the back and forward testing if you want.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It just tends to get a little expensive.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; margin: 0in 0in 0pt; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhk7mvCxuBv4tZSdoUfHqAyF7i_OfthMVzaHb4u7nYQbmPMRObc13W24stTwNrllrkrqBbZMn3RVmCFm1wBeyyG1nzt95QCnIHy0a-k1IupfbHNwTpI_z1mpJahqFHD2JU8cHGR-ySeJH8/s1600/PiratesVsTemp(en)_svg.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="201" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhk7mvCxuBv4tZSdoUfHqAyF7i_OfthMVzaHb4u7nYQbmPMRObc13W24stTwNrllrkrqBbZMn3RVmCFm1wBeyyG1nzt95QCnIHy0a-k1IupfbHNwTpI_z1mpJahqFHD2JU8cHGR-ySeJH8/s320/PiratesVsTemp(en)_svg.png" width="320" /></a></div>
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</div>
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<em>This seems to correlate, and I do like pirates, but...</em></div>
<o:p></o:p><br />Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1956383507234767340.post-86093339618952986672013-11-20T15:32:00.001-05:002013-11-20T15:37:18.230-05:00Sun Setting Soon on Solar?<em>The enlightened ruler is heedful, and the good general full of caution</em>.<br />
~<strong>Sun Tzu</strong><br />
<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjopAmU3QTqBqZ3dBEebPuwcRTzOGdCHWAgZdv_p-MTneC81UQixyxN3weQ7LH5obDGYVf2qk30r3gYKnZFHxVNzYV26xDjVa5RpLXaUqMowb9jN3Y6rfL0Ly6e8hk-Nvq8zW4QYMhbZfk/s1600/solar+roller+coaster.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="133" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjopAmU3QTqBqZ3dBEebPuwcRTzOGdCHWAgZdv_p-MTneC81UQixyxN3weQ7LH5obDGYVf2qk30r3gYKnZFHxVNzYV26xDjVa5RpLXaUqMowb9jN3Y6rfL0Ly6e8hk-Nvq8zW4QYMhbZfk/s200/solar+roller+coaster.png" width="200" /></a></div>
As usual, I missed another solar sector "upturn". That's okay because I seem to be better at taking advantage of solar sector downturns. Maybe the solar industry will finally take hold and reap Tesla-like gains (we all know those are permanent) but in the meantime I'll keep the solar stocks on the radar and ride them back down to where they came from. Who knows when that will be but I'll guess that the peak will occur in 2014 when the clouds roll in and render those solar panels useless once again. <br />
<br />
Here a look at the year-to-date gains made by some of the more popular solar stocks compared to the SPY.<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjBSkK86b2kSHyhQIYq_PmPiHpry6NWE37DlYQ1foJ8PpRR6A9_PW7n4KnW4W9gbMOIZxe3e6mR-b1PIQ_GP4UAKj6Ad5mldFgoT099DVJoZftGXEUl5SCB127V2lMc4gFZC0ksn_U6yJ8/s1600/SOLAR+YTD.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="381" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjBSkK86b2kSHyhQIYq_PmPiHpry6NWE37DlYQ1foJ8PpRR6A9_PW7n4KnW4W9gbMOIZxe3e6mR-b1PIQ_GP4UAKj6Ad5mldFgoT099DVJoZftGXEUl5SCB127V2lMc4gFZC0ksn_U6yJ8/s400/SOLAR+YTD.gif" width="400" /></a></div>
<br />
<br />
And here is a look at the decade-long peaks and valleys of this sector...<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjJk_yY6aypEQxYAryjf_vqIWQB0_OfS3CVpKdX6rfRz-ohUWeOWrhi7_Fywf9ugzqgbfT60dIZmtqZm3r3LrL4bdPCQC7Kq_fdj1uFbfil8hlTx6GEv-ymvqZgvWcnBdK-JP0S8AxRZr0/s1600/SOLAR+DECADE.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="381" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjJk_yY6aypEQxYAryjf_vqIWQB0_OfS3CVpKdX6rfRz-ohUWeOWrhi7_Fywf9ugzqgbfT60dIZmtqZm3r3LrL4bdPCQC7Kq_fdj1uFbfil8hlTx6GEv-ymvqZgvWcnBdK-JP0S8AxRZr0/s400/SOLAR+DECADE.gif" width="400" /></a></div>
<br />
<em>Ignore the lower indicators (volume, stochastics, and money flow). They just came along for the ride.</em><br />
<br />
<br />Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1956383507234767340.post-59442685461150981602013-11-09T13:02:00.001-05:002013-11-09T13:03:33.737-05:00"Best" Trading Days for the 2013 S&P 500 <br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
The "best" trading days this year might appear to
be everyday since the market has been sloping upward with little to stand in
its way. Of course, "best" is in the eye of the trader since
"best" can be defined as volatile, or trending in either direction. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Even so, if you look at each day individually
since January through yesterday,
you can get a better idea about the market activity as it relates to gains,
losses, and price volatility for each of the six point five hours of trading
that occur five days per week.</div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
The chart below, using S&P data, shows that the greatest average gains have
occurred on Friday and Tuesday; Monday has underperformed, and Wednesday appears
to be standing still with little change by the end of the trading day.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjqeweI4xshWkG8Pq0VHfuYffrZIPieBbmGXjz3o47-ZEGK8rhNMp0QTVMGIPnK7uAG81Ikh_jggDmojwc99iGC1XTlvhwiJNGQ1JYh97Vk-BjHy5Hii6kg9vCK1ZXnHYL6PvaMS1gILQ0/s1600/day+gain+2013.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="235" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjqeweI4xshWkG8Pq0VHfuYffrZIPieBbmGXjz3o47-ZEGK8rhNMp0QTVMGIPnK7uAG81Ikh_jggDmojwc99iGC1XTlvhwiJNGQ1JYh97Vk-BjHy5Hii6kg9vCK1ZXnHYL6PvaMS1gILQ0/s400/day+gain+2013.png" width="400" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
</div>
Now look at the day range for each day of the week.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This chart indicates which S&P days have the largest
percent intraday swings between the highs and lows of the day.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Comparing both charts, Wednesday shows the
greatest price swings during the day yet looking back on the first chart you can
see that all of that price volatility results in very little gain or loss
by the end of that day.<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhm-0Kg0gIuIB6YW8suON6LyZlfeizwqxDlyIzA5TcpFrpPXTWqAdEfxQWoX6AoPifgk4tONk7CG6GBgF4DcEBwXRs4ihe1goQ0LwndqoVwX-9G_iPNMX9QeE1NAlYx8ZoY6FA9Rb32XW8/s1600/day+range+2013.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="233" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhm-0Kg0gIuIB6YW8suON6LyZlfeizwqxDlyIzA5TcpFrpPXTWqAdEfxQWoX6AoPifgk4tONk7CG6GBgF4DcEBwXRs4ihe1goQ0LwndqoVwX-9G_iPNMX9QeE1NAlYx8ZoY6FA9Rb32XW8/s400/day+range+2013.png" width="400" /></a></div>
<br />
A more comprehensive year-by-year look (2008-2010) at the
daily price and volatility comparisons can be found <a href="http://monkeythrowdart.blogspot.com/2011/02/best-day-trading-day.html">here</a>.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><br />
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<o:p> </o:p></div>
Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1956383507234767340.post-6159938214429809012013-11-03T00:23:00.000-04:002013-11-03T00:23:10.117-04:00Japanese Candlestick-It-To-Ya and GapsI first started trading when someone showed me a candlestick chart. I was so amazed by this that I bought <a href="http://www.amazon.com/Japanese-Candlestick-Charting-Techniques-Contemporary/dp/0139316507/ref=sr_1_sc_3?ie=UTF8&qid=1383452152&sr=8-3-spell&keywords=japanesecandlestick">Steve Nison's book</a> on the subject and devoured the contents. Never again did I look at a stock chart unless it was of the candlestick variety.<br />
<br />
According to Steve Nison, candlestick charting first appeared sometime after 1850. Much of the credit for candlestick development and charting goes to a legendary rice trader named Homma from the town of Sakata. It is likely that his original ideas were modified and refined over many years of trading eventually resulting in the system of candlestick charting that we use today.<br />
<br />
The figure below shows the symbols used to describe a day in the life of a stock.<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhQMra_3UaMu4oSMpeUpV1ZtFYsTtIbZ7koktDnKrfMHoBEnS7TgXKf_d1-HjZQfs0Ulvq_oAIEEWZ11NUFLWWrl6m-lrG7N6uikXerwi7XS7lWeltTUrYqfpGdboXAKgpHfATJaIfwrAM/s1600/candle+formation.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhQMra_3UaMu4oSMpeUpV1ZtFYsTtIbZ7koktDnKrfMHoBEnS7TgXKf_d1-HjZQfs0Ulvq_oAIEEWZ11NUFLWWrl6m-lrG7N6uikXerwi7XS7lWeltTUrYqfpGdboXAKgpHfATJaIfwrAM/s320/candle+formation.gif" width="274" /></a></div>
<br />
<br />
And you can see the candles at work in this recent AIG chart:<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjvsXxCnR_6VmHxSwMtXthd6RrOjSyd8r_OUe-r-N8GdozofAv79MWCqgRlJsGDEGke1WwtDWKXk3JkTKVQPtdpgdrHathd7_YG_C7ImwFnssq6FbLT4G5unOBlzHQjcrAby12e4bcW7PU/s1600/AIG+GAP.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="230" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjvsXxCnR_6VmHxSwMtXthd6RrOjSyd8r_OUe-r-N8GdozofAv79MWCqgRlJsGDEGke1WwtDWKXk3JkTKVQPtdpgdrHathd7_YG_C7ImwFnssq6FbLT4G5unOBlzHQjcrAby12e4bcW7PU/s400/AIG+GAP.png" width="400" /></a></div>
<br />
I bring this up because of the large 7% gap in price that reduced AIG's $52 share price to $48. Gaps in price fascinate me almost as much as candlesticks do. Couple that dual fascination with a little historical data dealing with gaps in price at or near 10%, and you have information that might be useful.<br />
<br />
According to an article I read back in 2007 (I'll have to reference it later since 2007 was a long time ago), "down gaps" of around 10% just like the one you see in the chart tend to produce results at the end of a five-day period after the gap occurred which <strong>outperform a benchmark, </strong>consisting of seven million trades between 1995 and 2006, <strong>by roughly 2%</strong>. This most likely occurs because the smart money is buying rather than selling after this "massive" drop. Remember that whole "buy low, sell high" thing?<br />
<br />
It's important try to determine why a stock would tumble so severely. Much of the time I let the candlesticks confirm my suspicions. <em>Since when do I believe anything I read?</em> <br />
<br />
It may be a little early but since I believe that the next week or two for AIG will be flat or slight up, I could collect some easy premium selling a conservative covered call using a November in-the-money or at-the-money strike with maybe a little extra put thrown in there for insurance to keep the downside in check in case I jab myself in the eye again. <br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjdtRW0Sqf4IPy7cGZsTZ-9UIYgC6EeEjRfBUPfow6azSGZBdn58MorT47X2RP1JNPmVAwVgLaBQih15q8IdpF09iOhRZSMBhPk4WRiRgLuXMcavnRomE5y5865SfAGUlT1KH1lU-TomLI/s1600/monkey+dart.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjdtRW0Sqf4IPy7cGZsTZ-9UIYgC6EeEjRfBUPfow6azSGZBdn58MorT47X2RP1JNPmVAwVgLaBQih15q8IdpF09iOhRZSMBhPk4WRiRgLuXMcavnRomE5y5865SfAGUlT1KH1lU-TomLI/s320/monkey+dart.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
<br />
Gaps, candlesticks, and options. Just when I thought I was out....<br />
<br />
<iframe allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" src="//www.youtube-nocookie.com/embed/UPw-3e_pzqU?rel=0" width="560"></iframe>
<br />
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: Arial;"><a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UPw-3e_pzqU">http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UPw-3e_pzqU</a><o:p></o:p></span>
Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1956383507234767340.post-55174414160584753712013-10-30T18:30:00.000-04:002013-10-31T16:48:22.616-04:00Straddle or Strangle...Witch Is It?<br />
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<span style="color: #111111;">'Tis the season to do a little
strangling.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In this case our
"victim" will be none other than Whole Foods Market (WFM) just
because I'm a little hungry....for a few frog legs!<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Kidding.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Just keeping those colorful little critters guessing as the "frightful night" approaches.</span></div>
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<span style="color: #111111;"><o:p></o:p></span> </div>
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<span style="color: #111111;">Using a strangle options
strategy is often just another "lose your money in a fancy way"
suckers bet.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhm-GCNOoNP9uacm2Go3ZqVY4nE4yrWVKqV1IRrRuE0-alK2BcdFaFRklb9ZtmgZUAHTpidhcSY4ydxN2klLlv2IVKp6tVCUROlTFh4yHNiE2gkPk4O8TCRFtm4EAWwCvYaXSkC6wYhPPM/s1600/alfred+e+obama.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhm-GCNOoNP9uacm2Go3ZqVY4nE4yrWVKqV1IRrRuE0-alK2BcdFaFRklb9ZtmgZUAHTpidhcSY4ydxN2klLlv2IVKp6tVCUROlTFh4yHNiE2gkPk4O8TCRFtm4EAWwCvYaXSkC6wYhPPM/s1600/alfred+e+obama.png" /></a></div>
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<span style="color: #111111;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Strangling is an options
strategy where the investor holds a position in both a call and put <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">with different strike prices</i> but with
the same maturity and underlying asset. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>An example of this using a stock priced at $50 is as follows. In order to strangle that $50 underlying stock price you might buy a call at the $45 strike price and buy a put
at the $55 strike price. Buying a call means that you think the price of the stock may rise. Buying a put mean you may think that the price of the stock is going to fall.</span></div>
<span style="color: #111111;"></span><br />
<span style="color: #111111;">The current price of WFM is at
$64.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Hmmm.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Because its dead on the whole dollar (64) looks
like I will have use the strangle's evil twin...<strong><em>the straddle</em></strong>.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>A straddle is</span><span style="color: #111111; font-size: 10pt;"> </span><span style="color: #111111;">an options strategy
with which the investor holds a position in both a call and put <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">with the same strike price</i> and
expiration date.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>So in this case I will
simply buy a November $64 call and a November $64 put.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Shoot,
my Halloween theme just shot out of here like a bat out of the batcave.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Wait just a second...I guess I <u>will</u> get to use
my <em>Attack of the </em></span><st1:metricconverter productid="50 Ft"><span style="color: #111111;"><em>50 Ft</em></span></st1:metricconverter><span style="color: #111111;"><em>.Woman</em> poster one more time!</span><br />
<span style="color: #111111;"></span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj6kK8bYOZ0rwURRKWY4GxT5GpPWVxkz2kotmcbTWNZgDFzVqCd74Z_9xzHmaixCiREYBbSY3L7COjHiJpc2VxPvWCzOcIDJVnQgklgQk_W4xlpStIrSfK_z53oVNg8sq-0aAdVTXXGL9w/s1600/50+foot+woman.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj6kK8bYOZ0rwURRKWY4GxT5GpPWVxkz2kotmcbTWNZgDFzVqCd74Z_9xzHmaixCiREYBbSY3L7COjHiJpc2VxPvWCzOcIDJVnQgklgQk_W4xlpStIrSfK_z53oVNg8sq-0aAdVTXXGL9w/s400/50+foot+woman.png" width="253" /></a></div>
<span style="color: #111111;">A </span><st1:metricconverter productid="50 foot"><span style="color: #111111;">50 foot</span></st1:metricconverter><span style="color: #111111;"> tall women should never straddle a highway on-ramp.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>You might as well text and drive
instead.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">(Oh, why didn't I buy the model with the sunroof?!?...moon roof?)<o:p></o:p></i></span><br />
<span style="color: #111111;"></span><br />
<span style="color: #111111;">By buying the 64 strike call and
a 64 strike put for .47 and .45 respectively everything is fairly "even Steven".<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Remember that .47 for example is multiplied
by 100 because there are 100 share for each option contract.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>So one call option will cost $47 and one put
option will cost $45.</span><br />
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<span style="color: #111111;">Dude looks like a </span><st1:city><st1:place><span style="color: #111111;">Tyler</span></st1:place></st1:city><span style="color: #111111;">, no?</span></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiKNiGZ34SQXbnX8mpRtNlTOWdHMgJKP9CA5uZh6snaHGaqJQAMq4cT4htwvK6IMLx8PKPOOJGeiPqlAcsBnaK7wEybrQ73vTq7oqoAm57BvC-obbDxLXf2O4DH7yJdD4DwLo2wehv4cRs/s1600/The_Scream.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiKNiGZ34SQXbnX8mpRtNlTOWdHMgJKP9CA5uZh6snaHGaqJQAMq4cT4htwvK6IMLx8PKPOOJGeiPqlAcsBnaK7wEybrQ73vTq7oqoAm57BvC-obbDxLXf2O4DH7yJdD4DwLo2wehv4cRs/s1600/The_Scream.jpg" /></a></div>
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Dude looks like a Munch, no?</div>
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<span style="color: #111111;"><o:p> </o:p></span></div>
<span style="color: #111111;">But what would make a monkey
want to straddle a Whole Foods Market?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span><br />
<span style="color: #111111;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span></span><br />
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<span style="color: #111111;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"></span></span><br />
<span style="color: #111111;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"></span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>The answer is two fold.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>First and
as per usual I am utilizing a pre-earnings strategy.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Earnings for WFM is November the 6th right
after the close.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This strategy is all
about the volatility, and the anticipation of a good or bad earnings result can
make <u>both</u> calls and puts rise.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>This is referred to as the volatility <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">rush</i>, and the plan is to buy a few days before the earning
announcement and sell <u>prior to that announcement</u>.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>If you don't sell prior to the announcement
you may be turning a fairly low risk strategy into a high risk lesson in
volatility <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">crush</i> as option prices
can deflate immediately after the announcement; another example of "buy
the rumor sell the news".</span><br />
<span style="color: #111111;"></span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjDVdy64PQ08dLNEyLNdMN748F8srsbdJ5SG6X6_ti93eTHALB26LkQ3B1c-PSYQu6t1tlZmGG7PhhUu1FCcaiW_cxVw5Ont0Eeru5XycZ9puyaxaT76Ocw7jsoCBEIzBEiMDikBrRdrFs/s1600/anvil+coyote.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjDVdy64PQ08dLNEyLNdMN748F8srsbdJ5SG6X6_ti93eTHALB26LkQ3B1c-PSYQu6t1tlZmGG7PhhUu1FCcaiW_cxVw5Ont0Eeru5XycZ9puyaxaT76Ocw7jsoCBEIzBEiMDikBrRdrFs/s1600/anvil+coyote.png" /></a></div>
<span style="color: #111111;"><o:p></o:p></span><br />
<span style="color: #111111;">If you are new to options, but
observant, you might ask, "why just buy a few days before the earnings
announcement, why not buy a few weeks before the announcement."<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The simple answer is that options decay like
that new car you just drove off the lot.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>The right balance between time decay and volatility is key to making
$$ using this strategy.<o:p></o:p></span><br />
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<span style="color: #111111;"><o:p> </o:p></span><br />
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<span style="color: #111111;">View of decaying call or put
option.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="color: #111111;"><o:p> </o:p></span></div>
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<span style="color: #111111;"><o:p> </o:p></span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgqpc-Z6ysc4f_eY8rjUrCt7NQ3VkW_BbwfiKaipbsqYDvouIuIe4oSkMuaagMjr7q5Oshg42x4ySfXzlqJaIbr28rbJzHZZ0B0pC-sdF1OohyphenhyphenjJRFytVOhsGiPt_5qx3duNDGdJyaCmQo/s1600/hillary+witch.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgqpc-Z6ysc4f_eY8rjUrCt7NQ3VkW_BbwfiKaipbsqYDvouIuIe4oSkMuaagMjr7q5Oshg42x4ySfXzlqJaIbr28rbJzHZZ0B0pC-sdF1OohyphenhyphenjJRFytVOhsGiPt_5qx3duNDGdJyaCmQo/s1600/hillary+witch.jpg" /></a></div>
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...and under magnification.</div>
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<span style="color: #111111;"><o:p></o:p></span> </div>
<span style="color: #111111;">Just because a stock has an earnings announcement upcoming doesn't necessarily make it a good candidate for a pre-earnings straddle though. </span><span style="color: #111111;">An implied volatility history
that looks like an electrocardiogram of a healthy, blood red, beating heart is what you may want to look for.</span><br />
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<span style="color: #111111;"><o:p> </o:p></span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi4doparxzJSCFhY4BO7W15sN5U2DZkw56iecqYA0FI3KtJ5W9VetY11dJ7tI2Y3-TvKQv3TR8Rf1z_QV_9fBQUS2wpMa6hXScEX286r4YsTArgdtl1VhZ3IxtVKvIIxJPs3q2spPt4VKE/s1600/wfm+heartbeat.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="274" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi4doparxzJSCFhY4BO7W15sN5U2DZkw56iecqYA0FI3KtJ5W9VetY11dJ7tI2Y3-TvKQv3TR8Rf1z_QV_9fBQUS2wpMa6hXScEX286r4YsTArgdtl1VhZ3IxtVKvIIxJPs3q2spPt4VKE/s640/wfm+heartbeat.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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<span style="color: #111111;"></span><br />
<span style="color: #111111;">Notice the rise of the
pre-earnings rush and the fall of the post earning crush?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Keeping your eye on implied volatility (IV)
will at least give you a logical reason to enter a trade with a particular
stock.<o:p></o:p></span><br />
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<span style="color: #111111;"><o:p> </o:p></span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjLMxdSIQBE1u7hYDu3B_nPuZSrsmSMTeOWTs1eClbp19AJuiHfHiSoVyvbNAYodSQDQPHDgzb0f2xZla-vF-vOiyTkvM8wXA6Sw0SGEd4mB9nYFUMKwPoO4C-JmksOX-t3bWBEk0CO968/s1600/eyegor.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjLMxdSIQBE1u7hYDu3B_nPuZSrsmSMTeOWTs1eClbp19AJuiHfHiSoVyvbNAYodSQDQPHDgzb0f2xZla-vF-vOiyTkvM8wXA6Sw0SGEd4mB9nYFUMKwPoO4C-JmksOX-t3bWBEk0CO968/s1600/eyegor.jpg" /></a></div>
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<span style="color: #111111;"><o:p> </o:p></span></div>
<span style="color: #111111;">Let's put this trade in the pumpkin patch
for a few days and hope for a Hallowinner.</span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjOIi0DcPCqKoXwy9BJrFRSYUHZ_reXf1-2vEacCMpwiT-9bX4u00Q3xJRqjIOB1q_3fX6ujMBgEMpPEgU5SrLVbmhNJKg_RRBmBXWdoQ12N5EAJxhCw0qNwOTA9HZxeFqsHpgjYzC0M48/s1600/great+pumpkin.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="231" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjOIi0DcPCqKoXwy9BJrFRSYUHZ_reXf1-2vEacCMpwiT-9bX4u00Q3xJRqjIOB1q_3fX6ujMBgEMpPEgU5SrLVbmhNJKg_RRBmBXWdoQ12N5EAJxhCw0qNwOTA9HZxeFqsHpgjYzC0M48/s320/great+pumpkin.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
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<span style="color: #111111;"><o:p> </o:p></span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhPWOTDu8i1qbVYQwfVBDu4l7r4XiO0pycNaMJ97X9SbFBJlSE4xwWllnc9VyVoLA01otQZyeoGrIJ4rnyjr3niqoZypeLuqhGz_NqtXgQTQ4gXD0yHDNCgWRVha-tPwtabsz0-f4OmibI/s1600/jbpumpkin.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhPWOTDu8i1qbVYQwfVBDu4l7r4XiO0pycNaMJ97X9SbFBJlSE4xwWllnc9VyVoLA01otQZyeoGrIJ4rnyjr3niqoZypeLuqhGz_NqtXgQTQ4gXD0yHDNCgWRVha-tPwtabsz0-f4OmibI/s320/jbpumpkin.png" width="240" /></a></div>
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<span style="color: #111111;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh1Nnfd35uUrRDxD5e7bDbTQxmaOpN1DGy1Ka3ceTVnNE27Qxm9KA1_XS7a7MoMcBeaBF5QM82mEEMe1FOfhWDR0Evat9HI2JMiwMudnBp3I3_WKXyNAHFbCOxBsYIMaZx2IpJDUdp7aRI/s1600/Halloween-Hangover.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="248" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh1Nnfd35uUrRDxD5e7bDbTQxmaOpN1DGy1Ka3ceTVnNE27Qxm9KA1_XS7a7MoMcBeaBF5QM82mEEMe1FOfhWDR0Evat9HI2JMiwMudnBp3I3_WKXyNAHFbCOxBsYIMaZx2IpJDUdp7aRI/s320/Halloween-Hangover.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
<o:p></o:p><br />
<em>Postscript 10/31: After all that, I looked at the wrong options chain so the actual strike prices are incorrect. Looks like this one is more a trick than a treat. Maybe a do over next month?</em><br />
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<o:p> </o:p></div>
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Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1956383507234767340.post-92100396764779538692013-10-20T23:16:00.000-04:002013-10-21T17:00:17.999-04:00Sipping Sector Nectar in a Glass Half Empty<br />
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<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">You've got to be careful if you don't know where you're going 'cause
you might not get there.<o:p></o:p></i></b></div>
<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">~Yogi Berra<o:p></o:p></i><br />
<br />
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<o:p> </o:p></div>
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<o:p></o:p>Back in the old days (2008) markets used to go up <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><u>and down</u></b> so it was important to
check market direction, sector performance and then look at an individual
equity.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I do this even now.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Well, I general don't pay much attention to
sectors unless I am doing some specific-sector research.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>With that in mind I recently came across this
SPDR sector chart that goes all the way back to 2004. </div>
<br />
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<o:p> </o:p><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgKhI2Xf9T-N3KQDAD_beXFt5wrAnUHMe6R-fT4JNRHOkYPvVxlEX9MynKgTlnFYRlC6tj_yHZQNRnjwzNcxteDAw6wH3mwDD5ETxp2-U-rrsl2nmPafcuWMn6OujilkPzhxiLTXF-uuW4/s1600/SPDR+sector.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="264" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgKhI2Xf9T-N3KQDAD_beXFt5wrAnUHMe6R-fT4JNRHOkYPvVxlEX9MynKgTlnFYRlC6tj_yHZQNRnjwzNcxteDAw6wH3mwDD5ETxp2-U-rrsl2nmPafcuWMn6OujilkPzhxiLTXF-uuW4/s640/SPDR+sector.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<br />
<br />
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<a href="http://www.sectorspdr.com/shared/pdf/spdr-periodic-table-web.pdf"> Click here to view the full chart and data.</a></div>
<br />
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<o:p> </o:p>I'm attracted to
shiny objects and bright colors so this chart kept my attention as I mixed and
matched these colored cells finding several patterns, even some that don't really exist.</div>
<br />
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<o:p> </o:p>I get the whole equal sector strategy.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Just looks at the white cells in the chart
and the one-to-ten year chart at the bottom of the first page in the actual .pdf version.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Although we may never see another 2008 (<em>I'm
lying, again</em>) you can see how the <u>best</u> performing sector took a 15% beating
that year, and unless you found yourself in a few inverse ETF's or cash (any
port in a storm) you would have been lucky to have taken a 15% hit by the end of
2008. </div>
<br />
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<o:p> </o:p>I'm not so sure that the next market collapse will be so
kind regarding its time span and magnitude, and you can be sure that it will
happen at the most inopportune time. </div>
<br />
Not surprisingly, this colorful SPDR "periodic
table" was created to sell an equal weight sector strategy, but instead I
took it as a reminder of why I disregard blind faith as an investing strategy. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></div>
Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1956383507234767340.post-4756186304663935982013-10-14T09:26:00.001-04:002013-10-14T09:26:44.324-04:00Beta Buy the Dip
<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhmcgQ96OygA50p__qThPlGaYzMKkqNVkCQPfy4ML9EYwqxhRAO69XfIDB9f5L3quDBCHnv1Ybh7a-Ee8q11M55DAJZSsk8lNFc83jxKZLTIraD2L4Etl6XsvHsGByt3l1C-KdvVgTOoEk/s1600/rollercoaster.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="187" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhmcgQ96OygA50p__qThPlGaYzMKkqNVkCQPfy4ML9EYwqxhRAO69XfIDB9f5L3quDBCHnv1Ybh7a-Ee8q11M55DAJZSsk8lNFc83jxKZLTIraD2L4Etl6XsvHsGByt3l1C-KdvVgTOoEk/s200/rollercoaster.jpg" width="200" /></a></div>
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Beta, as you probably know, is a measure of the volatility,
or systematic risk, of a security or a portfolio in comparison to the market as
a whole. A beta of 1 indicates a stock that rises and falls in sync with the
market. The stocks listed here have a current beta of <strong>three or more</strong> so when the
market moves, these stocks tend to have price swings that are much greater.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The only other parameters for screening these
high beta stocks are a price range between 5 and 50, and an average volume
greater than 500,000.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>More importantly,
you must continue to believe in a market that never declines without immediate
recovery, and a <a href="http://monkeythrowdart.blogspot.com/2012/11/a-december-to-remember.html">typically strong December</a> finish if you plan to hold through the end of the year.</div>
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</div>
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These individual stocks are in various stages of "dippiness"<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>except for Ferro Corp. although a lower open
today could provide an opportunity.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></div>
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<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"></span> </div>
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<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">Symbol, Name, Beta, Current Stock Price</span></div>
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<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"><a href="http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/quickchart/quickchart.asp?symb=car&insttype=&freq=1&show=&time=19">CAR, Avis Budget Group, 4.03, $29.63</a></span></div>
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<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"><a href="http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/quickchart/quickchart.asp?symb=dan&insttype=&freq=1&show=&time=19">DAN, Dana Holding Corp., 4.14, $22.30</a></span></div>
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<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"><a href="http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/quickchart/quickchart.asp?symb=egle&insttype=&freq=1&show=&time=19">EGLE, Eagle Bulk Shipping, 3.25, $6.85</a></span></div>
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<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"><a href="http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/quickchart/quickchart.asp?symb=foe&insttype=&freq=1&show=&time=19">FOE, Ferro Corp, 4.03, $10.05</a></span></div>
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<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"><a href="http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/quickchart/quickchart.asp?symb=jks&insttype=&freq=1&show=&time=19">JKS, Jinko Solar, 3.99, $22.93</a></span></div>
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<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"><a href="http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/quickchart/quickchart.asp?symb=kog&insttype=&freq=1&show=&time=19">KOG, Kodiak Oil and Gas, 3.21, $12.47</a></span></div>
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<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"></span> </div>
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<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">Keep in mind that high beta stocks will fall faster than a drunk monkey wearing high heels if the market decides to dip in a big way.</span></div>
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<o:p> </o:p></div>
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Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1956383507234767340.post-64042580580352988972013-10-10T00:01:00.000-04:002013-10-10T08:45:52.143-04:00Deja Vu Doo at the FedI tried to leave the whole new Fed chairman thing alone by
taking the high road and saying nothing... but is there such a thing as "the
high road" for a monkey? <br />
<br />
Since <em>MonkeyThrowDart</em> may become history (a self-fulfilling
prophesy) before the 100th birthday of
the Federal Reserve I couldn't help but celebrate a little early; October seems
like the right month to pay homage to 100 years of Fed policy which includes robbing a primate of half
his savings over a working lifetime of<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>30 years with that hidden tax called inflation, not to mention the
stability that the Fed has given us... except for the crashes of 1929, 1974,
1987, 1998, 2000, and 2008 with associated massive transfers of wealth from the
poor to the 0.1%.<br />
<br />
Now I am sure my prediction of a 2015 financial disaster
(<a href="http://monkeythrowdart.blogspot.com/2013/02/shorting-asteroid-free-2015.html">or asteroid strike</a>) will occur, and maybe sooner than expected.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Typical of the sophomoric humor of those Fed folks and their
handlers to finally give a woman a turn to be prom queen for a change; the star in the final horrific scene. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> (</span>I know, POTUS appoints but
someone told him to do it. <em>(You don't think he makes these decisions on his own, do you?)</em><br />
<br />
Janet "<em>negative interest rate"</em> Yellen will make the
perfect fall guy, err, fall gal, as the Bernank steps aside and the bucket of
pigs blood comes crashing down.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><br />
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<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"></span> </div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgpbUfFuYMkQLCrsuoD6DEQKliFgCqrxD5uJkbnqkkaCO-xsbE2tenlaDlDhVEpzMPAXrjeP0MuAoxDD9-gWKWNNtZ9jO_fnPB9Ee5t62b8v9lT0KMCjeGGuiWLrefipBeSiD6YSrB_cfU/s1600/carrie+yellen.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="440" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgpbUfFuYMkQLCrsuoD6DEQKliFgCqrxD5uJkbnqkkaCO-xsbE2tenlaDlDhVEpzMPAXrjeP0MuAoxDD9-gWKWNNtZ9jO_fnPB9Ee5t62b8v9lT0KMCjeGGuiWLrefipBeSiD6YSrB_cfU/s640/carrie+yellen.jpg" width="640" /></a></div>
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<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"></span> </div>
<br />
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<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">And she looked so
pretty in that prom dress.<o:p></o:p></i></div>
Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1956383507234767340.post-31073720605604481712013-10-02T18:07:00.001-04:002013-10-02T21:57:35.236-04:00Mainstream Media: The Illusion of Choice<em><span style="color: blue;">Truthfully, in the <st1:country-region><st1:place>US</st1:place></st1:country-region>, the Internet is currently the last, and
only, bastion of free speech and unfiltered news.</span></em><br />
<span style="color: blue;"><strong><span style="color: blue;"><span style="background-color: #f3f3f3;">~William R. Clark, <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">PetroDollar Warfare</i></span></span></strong></span><br />
<strong><em><span style="color: blue;"></span></em></strong><br />
<span style="color: blue;"><strong><span style="color: blue;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p></o:p></i></span></strong><br />
<span style="color: black;">
</span> </span> <em><span style="color: blue;">There's really five
companies that control 90 percent of what we read, see and hear.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It's not healthy.<o:p></o:p></span></em><br />
<span style="color: blue;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></b><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">~Ted Turner<o:p></o:p></b></span><br />
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<o:p> </o:p>Who says you don't have a choice when it comes to getting
information in the <st1:country-region><st1:place>U.S.</st1:place></st1:country-region>?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>There is plenty of information to go around, just the wrong kind.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>All you have to do is look back to 2003
during the start of the Iraq War and compare the media coverage in the <st1:country-region><st1:place>U.S.</st1:place></st1:country-region>
to the coverage in other countries. Control is much easier when the sources are limited. </div>
<br />
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<o:p> </o:p>Ted Turner's quote and the info provided below were taken from the book, <em><a href="http://www.amazon.com/Petrodollar-Warfare-Iraq-Future-Dollar/dp/0865715149/ref=sr_1_1?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1380751464&sr=1-1&keywords=petrodollar+warfare">Petrodollar Warfare</a></em>.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This book was published in 2005 and there have
been several changes to the conglomerates since then. But let's look back eight years and see who owns who. The myriad of choices available for staying informed, you will see, will be whittled down to a mere five or six.</div>
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<o:p> </o:p></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: blue;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">AOL Time Warner</b>:
CNN and related networks, Home Box Office; Warner Brothers movie and television
studio, WB television network and affiliated record labels; AOL Internet
service, and Time Inc. magazines, such as Time, Fortune, Sports Illustrated,
People, and Entertainment Weekly.</span></div>
<span style="color: blue;">
</span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: blue;"><o:p> </o:p><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">News Corporation</b>:<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Fox broadcast television network and cable
new channel, 20th Century Fox movie studio, New York Post and several foreign
newspapers and television networks in <st1:place>Europe</st1:place> and <st1:country-region><st1:place>Australia</st1:place></st1:country-region>.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Conglomerate also includes extensive radio
network of 34 owned and operated stations, 9 duopolies, 188 affiliated
stations, several book publishers, sports franchises, and satellite companies,
such as Hughes Electronics Corporation.</span></div>
<span style="color: blue;">
</span><br />
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<span style="color: blue;"><o:p> </o:p><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">Walt Disney Company</b>:<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>ABC television network, ESPN cable sports
network, 10 stations/226 local affiliates, 62 radio stations/ 4600 affiliates,
several publishing companies and internet portals.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>As well as Disney amusement parks and related
resorts, Miramax and Hollywood Pictures, etc.</span></div>
<span style="color: blue;">
</span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: blue;"><o:p> </o:p><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">Viacom:</b> CBS and
UPN television networks; Infinity radio network, with nearly 200 stations;
cable television networks MTV, Showtime, and BET; <st1:place>Paramount</st1:place>
movie and television studios.</span></div>
<span style="color: blue;">
</span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: blue;"><o:p> </o:p><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">Vivendi Universal:</b><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Large internet portal in the US and Europe,
cable and satellite TV Universal Studios, Music, Film, Telecom, and non-media
corporations, etc.</span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<o:p> </o:p></div>
Well, that was way back in the early 00's.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I'm sure things have gotten better (as in
less consolidated) now, right?<br />
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<em>Hold on for a second.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>I have to admit that every time I see Ted Turner's name in print a
strange Pavlovian association occurs and my mouth begins to water, and my mind
turns to...bison, bison and more bison.</em></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<img border="0" height="200" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjA7mm3Log9yYR54xCKDR09OW9bmahYVEr0-ZBHAAMpK-Z0H4rCne2Ko-4_5Hbopc_H11MhVejzq8cYAISl3b5tP5sLg4SmLA203XcmL772Sole-hJ9D9bd7Ll4TdY3r7iFOTPDxQEUxDw/s200/ted's+montana+grill.png" width="200" /></div>
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Hey, sue me, <a href="http://www.tedsmontanagrill.com/about_history.html">I like bison.</a></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
Where was I?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Oh
yeah... Well, that was way back in the early 00's.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I'm sure things have gotten better (as in
less consolidated) now, right?</div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<o:p> </o:p>Take a look at this infographic from a 2012 Business Insider
article.</div>
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</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg8QWYVuIga6wN3-vZTwy44ZZyKN5TB3zrkCHW4om7RQQ7pprc5clovzf11eVfIQdqhWYxtqe6vl5qIKOjzYrqILJ9XkjsPMbICxlz1sPHduO05_ENdmN_InJEDXSOEFH0-qir13EvRfEw/s1600/news+media+consolidation.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg8QWYVuIga6wN3-vZTwy44ZZyKN5TB3zrkCHW4om7RQQ7pprc5clovzf11eVfIQdqhWYxtqe6vl5qIKOjzYrqILJ9XkjsPMbICxlz1sPHduO05_ENdmN_InJEDXSOEFH0-qir13EvRfEw/s1600/news+media+consolidation.png" /></a></div>
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</div>
Check out the full article and <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/these-6-corporations-control-90-of-the-media-in-america-2012-6">infographic here.</a> More shifts and changes in ownership since 2012 but still... the song remains the same.<br />
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<o:p> </o:p></div>
<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="color: blue;">You don't get rewarded in commercial broadcasting for trying to tell
the truth about the institutions of power in this country...<o:p></o:p></span></i><br />
<span style="color: blue;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">~Bill Moyer<o:p></o:p></i></b></span><br />
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></div>
Of course if these companies are publicly traded, I've got to look at
the charts; another Pavlovian response, I would assume.<br />
<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEig3Xa_h1zFc349_d7EV1t3T-sZz6KeJ0Tx3zfjf-RB127Pi6cG6_wB2V5MlujZLFvRlZ0DCliAohnhMzMQWw5XDtjfsVhyphenhyphendNl0LQkCcKcfEGmX8ARDWhCi0d3Ib68MnMMsbu-_45aFTp4/s1600/news2.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="300" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEig3Xa_h1zFc349_d7EV1t3T-sZz6KeJ0Tx3zfjf-RB127Pi6cG6_wB2V5MlujZLFvRlZ0DCliAohnhMzMQWw5XDtjfsVhyphenhyphendNl0LQkCcKcfEGmX8ARDWhCi0d3Ib68MnMMsbu-_45aFTp4/s640/news2.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<br />
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No complaints here after looking at the five year
performance of Disney, Viacom, Time-Warner, CBS, and Comcast versus the
S&P.</div>
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<o:p> </o:p></div>
<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="color: blue;">Our liberty depends on the freedom of the press, and that cannot be
limited without being lost.<o:p></o:p></span></i><br />
<span style="color: blue;">
</span><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="color: blue;">~Thomas Jefferson</span> </i></b><br />
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"></i></b><br />
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"></i></b><br />
<o:p><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 12pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-US;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"></span></span></o:p><br />
<iframe allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" src="//www.youtube-nocookie.com/embed/yXmnmvDl-ao?rel=0" width="560"></iframe>
<br />
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<a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yXmnmvDl-ao">http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yXmnmvDl-ao</a><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></div>
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<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><o:p> </o:p></i></b></div>
Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1956383507234767340.post-38638689652787433872013-09-30T00:45:00.000-04:002013-09-30T00:47:06.510-04:00Twelve Years of OctoberSince October tends to conjure up some ghoulish market "dips", I've updated the "Eleven Years of October" chart which now makes it the "Twelve Years of October" chart.<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg5Xm_2YELVmbtk0e8nWz2n4JlTlK9X_3jKAyH31RNk7PUBM4kVDZjATz3FdlQ7DVrKH49URe-wx1Tjw48rO5owZ9cVzTaD1b6bQCOFtQ0oRQCHfq7C_QjavRBfcswmuvyBzPglNRhKG8o/s1600/oct12yr.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="330" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg5Xm_2YELVmbtk0e8nWz2n4JlTlK9X_3jKAyH31RNk7PUBM4kVDZjATz3FdlQ7DVrKH49URe-wx1Tjw48rO5owZ9cVzTaD1b6bQCOFtQ0oRQCHfq7C_QjavRBfcswmuvyBzPglNRhKG8o/s640/oct12yr.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<br />
The only recent scar left on this chart is the 2008 disaster that shed more light on the true face of the market, and <a href="http://monkeythrowdart.blogspot.com/2011/10/recipe-for-financial-mask-of-horror.html">the cast of Teflon psychos</a> (<em>also known as ghoulish market dips</em>) who steal from the poor and then get rewarded for doing so. <br />
<br />
Only the mechanical (<em>or is that maniacal</em>) MensaMonkey would dare short this market. I can tell MM is ready to hit the sell signal if debt ceiling dopiness spooks the market. How does that saying go...fool me once shame on you, fool me twice shame on me? Or as George W. Dumass once said, <em>"Fool me once, shame on - shame on you. Fool me - you can't get fooled again." </em><br />
<br />
Just a guess but I'll have to go with an October gain of roughly 3% which would put the NASDAQ at 3,900 and the S&P at 1,740. Hey, even a broken clock finds an acorn once in a while.<br />
Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1956383507234767340.post-34981944010934087822013-09-21T12:44:00.000-04:002013-09-21T12:45:01.648-04:00The Updated 2013 Coppock Curve is Here!<span style="color: black;">I thought an exclamation point in
the blog title might make this post more interesting.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I just remembered that I haven't updated the
Coppock Curve in quite a while.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The main
reason for the lack of updating is that this indicator serves no purpose at the
moment since it is a buy indicator that gave its last buy signal back in
2009.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It will be useful once again when
the market tanks (<em>as</em> <em>it should have done this year, so says the MensaMonkey</em>). <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span><br />
<span style="color: black;"></span><br />
<span style="color: black;">The following is a "Coppock
Curve basics" re-post from December 2012 that's a re-post from July 2012 (with
updated chart through August 2013)...</span><br />
<span style="color: black;"></span><br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="color: blue;">As a refresher, the Coppock Curve was developed by a guy
named Coppock. He had been asked by the Episcopal Church to identify buying
opportunities for long-term investors. He thought market downturns were like
bereavements and required a period of mourning so he used 11 and 14 months in
his calculation after the church bishops informed him that bereavement periods
generally last 11 to 14 months. </span></i><em><span style="color: blue; font-style: normal; mso-bidi-font-style: italic;">Gotta love the science</span></em><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="color: blue;">.<br />
<br />
The formula is simple: Coppock = WMA[10] of (ROC[14] + ROC[11]). WMA is the
weighted moving average and ROC is the rate of change. If my weighted averages
are weighted in the right places, the chart now looks something like this:</span></i></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="color: blue;"></span></i> </div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgbxfArbHWWYM2IGsJbWUOPUolRkaFR84qP4L3K6scEILmoZKpInV8P7NvltHWZJh3gwjqoVahRtSzz4BqKTD4tZCg-JXrWTrb8YTfrwcd3a_QZmnPNS3_xeLnLmA45KFpNrPgYZ6pD4OQ/s1600/coppock+0813.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="210" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgbxfArbHWWYM2IGsJbWUOPUolRkaFR84qP4L3K6scEILmoZKpInV8P7NvltHWZJh3gwjqoVahRtSzz4BqKTD4tZCg-JXrWTrb8YTfrwcd3a_QZmnPNS3_xeLnLmA45KFpNrPgYZ6pD4OQ/s400/coppock+0813.png" width="400" /></a></div>
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<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="color: blue;"></span></i> </div>
<span style="color: blue;"></span><br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
<span style="color: blue;"><em>A buy signal is generated when the indicator is below zero
and turns upward from a trough. The last time that happened was in early 2009.
That's it...end of story. If you are looking for a sell signal using the
Coppock Curve you'll have similar success flipping a coin. There is only 50%
accuracy for sell signals versus 80% accuracy using buy signals. <br />
<br />
Why doesn't this work both ways? That's easy (said the monkey). Look back at
the history. Coppock is using <strong>bereavement period science</strong> here.
How many times have you heard someone say, "I am so happy he died. I
wonder when I'll be sad again"</em>. <br />
<br />
<em>I'm assuming that we are talking about loved ones rather than enemies.</em></span></div>
<span style="color: blue;">
</span><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
<span style="color: blue;"><em></em> </span></div>
<span style="color: blue;">
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
<em><u2:p></u2:p></em><o:p></o:p> </div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
<span style="color: black;">
<iframe allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" src="//www.youtube-nocookie.com/embed/-7aIf1YnbbU?rel=0" width="560"></iframe><a href="http://www.blogger.com/goog_2038497420">
</a></span></div>
<a href="http://www.blogger.com/goog_2038497420">
</a></span><span style="color: black;"><a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-7aIf1YnbbU">http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-7aIf1YnbbU</a></span><br />
<span style="color: blue;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
</span><br />
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</div>
Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1956383507234767340.post-91063637545772021332013-09-18T23:24:00.000-04:002013-09-18T23:27:08.390-04:00An Ounce of Prevention?<br />
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Since I like shiny things, white board animations, and stories
about sunken ships, I thought I would pass along this video that I saw the
other day at <a href="http://www.philstockworld.com/">Phil's Stock World</a>.</div>
<br />
<iframe allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" src="//www.youtube-nocookie.com/embed/5z5xwb2xCyk?rel=0" width="560"></iframe>
<br />
<a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5z5xwb2xCyk">http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5z5xwb2xCyk</a>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<o:p> </o:p></div>
<em>This might just be more gold bug fiction.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I mean how realistic is it to try to cram a
lifeboat into a tiny safety deposit box?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span></em><br />
<em></em><br />
<em>Don't get me wrong.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>If the
Federal Reserve continues to ease the economy into oblivion, I'll make the
lifeboat fit.</em><br />
<em></em><br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhGeYoraUi2ITb_bX6hlj1snRcSVdBugrXcwjNTC3c7Ijgp9_iXr9za2pvA3b_kmFjlEVsBrPNSUeKqoyx0_gZnUUAmYOwsEn9C7UL2LfVysQSGP2ShP3Jiu0yP5rqvqpnb8ckSbKJ-Tec/s1600/lookout.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="180" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhGeYoraUi2ITb_bX6hlj1snRcSVdBugrXcwjNTC3c7Ijgp9_iXr9za2pvA3b_kmFjlEVsBrPNSUeKqoyx0_gZnUUAmYOwsEn9C7UL2LfVysQSGP2ShP3Jiu0yP5rqvqpnb8ckSbKJ-Tec/s320/lookout.png" width="320" /></a></div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
<em>QE Infinity right ahead!!</em></div>
<o:p></o:p><br />Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1956383507234767340.post-8216173861391196732013-09-16T18:04:00.000-04:002013-09-17T12:42:58.572-04:00Fed: Position Available<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
Searching the Federal Reserve website for the employment
opportunities section proved futile.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Since there was a rumor that they were looking for a new "Fed
Head", I remembered that old saying that "there is no 'I' in the word
try". </div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
Anyway, looking at the list of members it seems like the
current roster of insiders is quite deep with talent...</div>
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</div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi92w0vbVrA87Hlt3exWhs05-8DwpFwWLkqhekeN5cXgXpOuaagjzzHkgydcXENS-M2DFCVf16xFJbtLIUdNQrrJZBdZlByfWHrv_AUFsxgU0IhNXz-g4EQ0DDQ2ki8zKd8WBVqPs5pYtQ/s1600/fed2.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="456" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi92w0vbVrA87Hlt3exWhs05-8DwpFwWLkqhekeN5cXgXpOuaagjzzHkgydcXENS-M2DFCVf16xFJbtLIUdNQrrJZBdZlByfWHrv_AUFsxgU0IhNXz-g4EQ0DDQ2ki8zKd8WBVqPs5pYtQ/s640/fed2.jpg" width="640" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<br />
</div>
From what I've read the job requires the ability to put up
with some serious micro-managing from international "handlers" but the
winning applicant does get a front row seat on the Fed-fueled BoomBusterCoaster.<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjieRaOS5bvUr6Q4r8Y4STi6KkNyAD3n6OJ8CziOFuYJLx7sfQ0UvqO8zBUhMo4cBGkhaF7Qh1BpIBAAVnldtaaSke7poZoMXp9v0nAL5VqwafldyUIYRB8kKLwpEcSnFxhOmB2Y6QXqD4/s1600/SP500-history-of-debt-boom-and-bust18-1024x670.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="418" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjieRaOS5bvUr6Q4r8Y4STi6KkNyAD3n6OJ8CziOFuYJLx7sfQ0UvqO8zBUhMo4cBGkhaF7Qh1BpIBAAVnldtaaSke7poZoMXp9v0nAL5VqwafldyUIYRB8kKLwpEcSnFxhOmB2Y6QXqD4/s640/SP500-history-of-debt-boom-and-bust18-1024x670.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<br />
Of course, this federal reserve chairman position does
include some customer service responsibilities, so patience is a must...<br />
<br />
<iframe allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" src="//www.youtube-nocookie.com/embed/EbcpPPAKufs?rel=0" width="420"></iframe>
<br />
<a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EbcpPPAKufs">http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EbcpPPAKufs</a><br />
<br />
<iframe allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" src="//www.youtube-nocookie.com/embed/c8vYm9Q9YO8?rel=0" width="420"></iframe>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<o:p><a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c8vYm9Q9YO8">http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c8vYm9Q9YO8</a></o:p><br />
<o:p></o:p><br />
If still interested, the following video gives some
background on the history of the internationally controlled Federal Reserve.<br />
<br />
<iframe allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" src="//www.youtube-nocookie.com/embed/NzyOtl4MDC4?rel=0" width="560"></iframe>
</div>
<a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NzyOtl4MDC4">http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NzyOtl4MDC4</a><br />
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<o:p> </o:p>After all that, <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I was
told that the Chairman of the Fed is <u>appointed</u>...<em>by the Prince of
Darkness!</em> <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; margin: 0in 0in 0pt; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgKxmbUYAL0wzOXPVbBhDXqOkYSQLsiRifepyi-3vQVcdirezd8elFBPuece1HYQVGBg79-RZ5gIA76w0Aw_7Pl5e67aFds48rzJOmMn4wI57xlMtT0A2FtOWwQya5EMvxLfEzYT3fGLpc/s1600/OBAMA+BAD-FINGER.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgKxmbUYAL0wzOXPVbBhDXqOkYSQLsiRifepyi-3vQVcdirezd8elFBPuece1HYQVGBg79-RZ5gIA76w0Aw_7Pl5e67aFds48rzJOmMn4wI57xlMtT0A2FtOWwQya5EMvxLfEzYT3fGLpc/s1600/OBAMA+BAD-FINGER.jpg" /></a></div>
<br />
Truth stranger than fiction, no?<br />
<div style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-size: x-small;"></span> </div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-size: x-small;"></span> </div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
<em>(Hat tip to </em><a href="http://xtremelyun-pcandunrepentant.blogspot.com/2013/09/o-bird-is-word.html"><em>STM at F-FFF</em></a><em> for the fickle finger of fate foto.)</em></div>
Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1956383507234767340.post-69265063866520988422013-09-13T23:53:00.001-04:002013-09-14T00:07:30.436-04:00#IPO: The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly<br />
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjHOy9e6u8tE005hvyH2VxGwte_UrZyb4KaduGgrboKIA3Td_OqHgPjM5FSWDS4eMjNgLLt_QC2Ih6QFLQaNTb0Rj12fqTa2azSes7PxRvUdAyRlT2kkUgK_iGvCc-qBqlKkEyHOStfu64/s1600/follow+me.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="147" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjHOy9e6u8tE005hvyH2VxGwte_UrZyb4KaduGgrboKIA3Td_OqHgPjM5FSWDS4eMjNgLLt_QC2Ih6QFLQaNTb0Rj12fqTa2azSes7PxRvUdAyRlT2kkUgK_iGvCc-qBqlKkEyHOStfu64/s200/follow+me.png" width="200" /></a></div>
An initial public offering (IPO) or stock market launch is a
type of public offering where shares of stock in a company are sold to the
general public, on a securities exchange, for the first time.</div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<o:p> </o:p>Can you make a fortune investing in an IPO?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Absolutely!</div>
Can you lose a fortune investing in an IPO? Absolutely!<br />
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<o:p> </o:p>Glad I cleared that up.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>It's always easier when dealing in absolutes.</div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<o:p> </o:p>I never will call a pound sign (#) a hash tag, but with the
news that Twitter will soon join the fun at the NYSE or NASDAQ, I guess I could
adjust.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I won't go into the details of
why I think Twitter will actually be a great investment;<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> j</span>ust google <em>(it's a verb now)</em> "Twitter
IPO" and sort through the pros and cons.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>You still have plenty of time to decide if Twitter, stock symbol: ????
or ???, will fall into one of the three categories listed below.</div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<o:p> </o:p><strong>The Good</strong></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<o:p> </o:p>The only way to make it into this elite group is to approach
the "10-bagger" status...<span style="color: #111111;"> an investment
that appreciates to 10 times its initial purchase price.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: #111111;">Whole Foods Markets (WFM): 1000%
growth in just over six years.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<span style="color: #111111;">Qualcomm (QCOM):<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>1000% growth in six years<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<span style="color: #111111;">Express Scripts (ESRX): 1000%
growth in four and a half years.<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<span style="color: #111111;">Wellpoint Inc.(WLP): 1000%
growth in four years.<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<span style="color: #111111;">Starbucks (SBUX):<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>1000% growth in three years.<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<span style="color: #111111;">Yahoo (YHOO):<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>1000% growth in two years.<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<span style="color: #111111;">Amazon (AMZN): 1000% growth in
one year.<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<span style="color: #111111;">Ebay (EBAY): 1000% growth in six
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">months.<o:p></o:p></b></span><br />
<span style="color: #111111;">Google (GOOG): a meager 900%
growth since it's 2004 debut.<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt;">
<span style="color: #111111;"><o:p> </o:p></span><span style="color: #111111;">Sure, except for Wellpoint and
Google, these IPO's came out in the roaring 90's, but we're in the roaring
"teens" now, right.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It's smooth
sailing except for the expected <a href="http://monkeythrowdart.blogspot.com/2013/02/shorting-asteroid-free-2015.html">total market collapse in 2015...or an asteroid strike</a>...still not clear on that yet. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="color: #111111;"><o:p> </o:p></span></div>
<span style="color: #111111;"><strong>The Bad<o:p></o:p></strong></span><br />
<br />
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<span style="color: #111111;"><o:p> </o:p></span><span style="color: #111111;">For the "bad", words
don't do the stock performance justice...<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="color: #111111;"><o:p> </o:p></span><span style="color: #111111;">Vonage (VG) </span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjpfP-sxbCPPueXK9phUOUJmJB672Is8EBBLHZZzCO_0YaxfTkbgrCzApZUjYdf2zepcpPSd9F1MqZ41PFVvlOlW25YoSJAODwiU5tknFz7B6xGe6st6jP3PpudNMVGPFrfSYfTiBW2tWU/s1600/vg.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="245" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjpfP-sxbCPPueXK9phUOUJmJB672Is8EBBLHZZzCO_0YaxfTkbgrCzApZUjYdf2zepcpPSd9F1MqZ41PFVvlOlW25YoSJAODwiU5tknFz7B6xGe6st6jP3PpudNMVGPFrfSYfTiBW2tWU/s320/vg.gif" width="320" /></a></div>
<span style="color: #111111;"><o:p></o:p></span> </div>
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<span style="color: #111111;"><o:p> </o:p></span><span style="color: #111111;">Shanda (GAME)<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="color: #111111;"><o:p></o:p></span><br />
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<span style="color: #111111;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiZjIRxVQznG9EUx2QqC5-uGyg-fZdC-MIvd2vyJ-3x7JZbeQ3ZW1L0qaDtvYQTu_HrS_cKTblZelyDSD_qvoUOvQDZdDOYz8sNscPm3KFeCqGMhNB8UrOtE2jMbbejf-Y3RSI15TMf5qY/s1600/game.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="185" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiZjIRxVQznG9EUx2QqC5-uGyg-fZdC-MIvd2vyJ-3x7JZbeQ3ZW1L0qaDtvYQTu_HrS_cKTblZelyDSD_qvoUOvQDZdDOYz8sNscPm3KFeCqGMhNB8UrOtE2jMbbejf-Y3RSI15TMf5qY/s320/game.gif" width="320" /></a></span></div>
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<span style="color: #111111;">Blackstone Group (BX)...where getting back to even would be a
victory.</span><br />
<span style="color: #111111;"></span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiUfwPof4IW_KJ4keFvNhN5b7aD_LKR9BHrDY4uI6Tsoj3TG10B5Wmt2EYRpYbRNq9gmjS0go1j84FSIFDbxaAkLulyaLPnOsE8PBZhFZ0iVMXNJx28R0hYUii0VVVO-zTcny6DTAKWsdg/s1600/bx.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="185" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiUfwPof4IW_KJ4keFvNhN5b7aD_LKR9BHrDY4uI6Tsoj3TG10B5Wmt2EYRpYbRNq9gmjS0go1j84FSIFDbxaAkLulyaLPnOsE8PBZhFZ0iVMXNJx28R0hYUii0VVVO-zTcny6DTAKWsdg/s320/bx.gif" width="320" /></a></div>
<span style="color: #111111;"><o:p></o:p></span> </div>
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<span style="color: #111111;"><o:p> </o:p></span><span style="color: #111111;">And then there are the
"dot.coms"...Pets.com, Webvan.com, Kozmo.com, eToys.com, just to name a few of the dear departed.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Consider your investment the price of an
education in the subject of what not to invest in.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="color: #111111;"><o:p> </o:p></span></div>
<span style="color: #111111;"><strong>The Ugly<o:p></o:p></strong></span><br />
<br />
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<span style="color: #111111;"><o:p> </o:p></span><span style="color: #111111;">Well, I'll just put a recent one (Facebook) into
this category.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Ugly, yes, but maybe if
we slap enough lipstick on this pig...</span><br />
<span style="color: #111111;"></span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjACdoK_LfUsbDTJvwTQr6OcL804GdlOR1qjmiHHWehleEsjcg-kloHQjpVWS7R_4PIlpyI9vAmQBbFREmmIFfK3GvKY-UR-Q3SKmSTA_A3iTWgXBkWbRjyQloLbSzKusKzRwoGBFR9Dvo/s1600/fb.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="185" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjACdoK_LfUsbDTJvwTQr6OcL804GdlOR1qjmiHHWehleEsjcg-kloHQjpVWS7R_4PIlpyI9vAmQBbFREmmIFfK3GvKY-UR-Q3SKmSTA_A3iTWgXBkWbRjyQloLbSzKusKzRwoGBFR9Dvo/s320/fb.gif" width="320" /></a></div>
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<span style="color: #111111;"><o:p> </o:p></span></div>
<em><span lang="EN" style="color: #222222; font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 11.5pt; mso-ansi-language: EN;">Data provided by Bloomberg.</span></em><o:p></o:p>Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1956383507234767340.post-4881402073329314392013-09-04T12:12:00.000-04:002013-09-04T22:57:16.024-04:00Operation Syria: Rescuing the Petrodollar<br />
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The markets hate uncertainty so the only advice I would give
is to sell the rumors and buy the news. <em>(inverse advice, but I like it too!)</em><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>The news of an attack on <st1:country-region><st1:place>Syria</st1:place></st1:country-region>
or the decision to back off and "work on a diplomatic solution"
doesn't matter.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Just take away the
uncertainty and the market will most likely continue on it's upward spiral.</div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjx6hE2U7xpdSNm8ML0UjZ2ppAN8dlAAXHxdX1DImMlhrTgFVd-MeGYDjJUIiNM07loIahDHkzNdNW9ELP9r_PlPH2nlk0yUO1wCO_MhnxxWmgbwJfdijsqppDxYX_7yCoZi0dnUViDxYk/s1600/5daynaz090413.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="185" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjx6hE2U7xpdSNm8ML0UjZ2ppAN8dlAAXHxdX1DImMlhrTgFVd-MeGYDjJUIiNM07loIahDHkzNdNW9ELP9r_PlPH2nlk0yUO1wCO_MhnxxWmgbwJfdijsqppDxYX_7yCoZi0dnUViDxYk/s320/5daynaz090413.gif" width="320" /></a></div>
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<br />
I remember when I had alluded to <a href="http://monkeythrowdart.blogspot.com/2010/12/aloha-portfolio-re-visited.html">my previous experiences
with sarin gas and a few variations and concentrations of non-lethal </a><span class="st"><span style="color: #222222;"><a href="http://monkeythrowdart.blogspot.com/2010/12/aloha-portfolio-re-visited.html">lachrymatory agents</a>.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Walking around in a heavy WWII-era
protective suit in the Honolulu heat can make a monkey a little tipsy so after yet another round of monkey see, monkey do, I asked the
on-site chemical drill sergeant guru what would really happen in the event of a sarin gas
attack.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>He bluntly stated, <em>"You'll
die, but at least you'll know how to do it the right way".</em><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> Honesty is so refreshing.</span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></span><br />
<span class="st"><span style="color: #222222;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"></span></span></span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiC5a2JIX4pXwfrhB2_6lIIoFPpQ_8gGtWUbYFbC4zJbA4G-FFp8wAwPLOUWUxBvVEk3AS9gfMbKEKTzJbItF2rlSPG6j17HD7ijWfg5NIy9WHrAx4AFxwUkkTmj72TmY6qZ5anwfyZrpU/s1600/paranoid+monkey.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="200" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiC5a2JIX4pXwfrhB2_6lIIoFPpQ_8gGtWUbYFbC4zJbA4G-FFp8wAwPLOUWUxBvVEk3AS9gfMbKEKTzJbItF2rlSPG6j17HD7ijWfg5NIy9WHrAx4AFxwUkkTmj72TmY6qZ5anwfyZrpU/s200/paranoid+monkey.png" width="145" /></a></div>
<span class="st"><span style="color: #222222;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"></span></span></span><br />
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<span class="st"><span style="color: #222222;"><o:p> </o:p></span></span><span class="st"><span style="color: #222222;">Trying to get the
support of the people (not the monkeys, you'll notice) by introducing something so scary as a poisonous gas,
after the textbook destabilization of </span></span><st1:country-region><st1:place><span class="st"><span style="color: #222222;">Syria</span></span></st1:place></st1:country-region><span class="st"><span style="color: #222222;">, seems a little too transparent, doesn't
it? The real fear of those who pull the puppet strings of the POTUS,
Secretary of State and, well, everyone else, is the<strong> on-going attack on the
petrodollar</strong>. A petrodollar is a </span></span><st1:country-region><st1:place><span class="st"><span style="color: #222222;">United States</span></span></st1:place></st1:country-region><span class="st"><span style="color: #222222;"> dollar earned by a country through the
sale of its petroleum (oil) to another country. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<br />
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<span class="st"><span style="color: #222222;"><o:p> </o:p></span></span><span class="st"><span style="color: #222222;">It's not too
difficult to peel the layers of deception back on this one.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Don't let the smoke screen of a
"humanitarian mission" cloud your judgment.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But why take the word of a monkey?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Here's a few links that may provide some
useful insight...<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></span></div>
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<span class="st"><span style="color: #222222;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"></span></span></span> </div>
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<span class="st"><span style="color: #222222;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">As a primer in video form, watch <strong><a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=djwPqAJ_3GY#t=818">The Petrodollar Explained</a>.</strong></span></span></span></div>
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<span class="st"><span style="color: #222222;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"><strong></strong></span></span></span> </div>
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</div>
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<span lang="EN" style="mso-ansi-language: EN;">May seem like some gold bug propaganda to some but a few nuggets about Gazprom and the Natural Gas Coop here in...</span></div>
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<span lang="EN" style="mso-ansi-language: EN;"> <a href="http://www.gold-eagle.com/article/syria-pipeline-politics-opec-usdollar"><strong>Syria, Pipeline Politics, OPEC & the U.S. Dollar</strong></a></span></div>
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<span lang="EN" style="mso-ansi-language: EN;"></span> </div>
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<span lang="EN" style="mso-ansi-language: EN;"></span> </div>
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From the always thought-provoking Charles Hughes Smith...<br />
<a href="http://charleshughsmith.blogspot.com/"><strong>America's Energy Boom and the Rising U.S. Dollar</strong></a></div>
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</div>
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<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: normal; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;">And from the guy who coined the
term Petrodollar Warfare...</span></div>
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: normal; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: normal; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><a href="http://www.amazon.com/Petrodollar-Warfare-Iraq-Future-Dollar/dp/0865715149/ref=sr_1_1?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1378308031&sr=1-1&keywords=petrodollar+warfare"><strong>Petrodollar Warfare: Oil, Iraq and the Future of the Dollar by William R. Clark</strong></a><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: normal; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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</span><br />
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</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 12pt; font-weight: normal; mso-bidi-font-weight: bold;"> </span></div>
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</span><br />
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<em>OK, after doing your homework, you now can call me a conspiracy
dung-chuckin' theoramonkey.</em></div>
<span class="st"><span style="color: #222222;"><o:p><br />
</o:p></span></span><br />
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<span class="st"><span style="color: #222222;"> </span></span></div>
<span class="st"><span style="color: #222222;">
</span></span><span class="st"><span style="color: #222222;"><o:p></o:p></span></span>Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1956383507234767340.post-64908132943835766342013-08-27T12:15:00.001-04:002013-08-27T12:51:37.126-04:00"Wars R (Still) Us" Portfolio<iframe allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" src="//www.youtube-nocookie.com/embed/M-FXkj-r9Mc?rel=0" width="420"></iframe>
<br />
<a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M-FXkj-r9Mc">http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M-FXkj-r9Mc</a><br />
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I usually check this portfolio when they stop feeding Kim-Jong-Un
but I guess I can make an exception.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><br />
</div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEghPH9ZT7GdHTFbqZqMLrmhfJ3vY-AwTghWl7u4YLjzhQIajbDZTIjydfWlJDT6Gq9vgHaTvZhA-AGgPsZSwryCEwHbn9OhrJzHuDa7yVwGTFgwfK3PHL25anDVxxZ8CW1la-r3IDP1ULA/s1600/hungry+kim.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEghPH9ZT7GdHTFbqZqMLrmhfJ3vY-AwTghWl7u4YLjzhQIajbDZTIjydfWlJDT6Gq9vgHaTvZhA-AGgPsZSwryCEwHbn9OhrJzHuDa7yVwGTFgwfK3PHL25anDVxxZ8CW1la-r3IDP1ULA/s1600/hungry+kim.jpg" /></a></div>
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<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"></span> </div>
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<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"></span> </div>
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<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>No
safe place to put your money?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Pish posh!<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>With all the recent <strike>Albanian</strike> Syrian excitement, and the deep
well of terrorist bogeymen under the bed, companies like those in the trimmed
down warmonger portfolio will, at least, provide opportunities to pick
some low hanging fruit.</div>
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<o:p> </o:p>Raytheon, (RTN), Haliburton (HAL), KBR Inc. (KBR), Northrup Grumman
(NOC)<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgQaKRfPeOasANNC11z0MntH-Z38vuZC-QCeA1_4ARWZdTPVo6ETBVRvNuOr3u3gmSygfPTZ9xavX0P5xWCDV0vFmOGjSGaHwO9UiBMS9fVGnBXyQtc05ZTeuLOjBaLBZxXdX8M_v31kCc/s1600/wars+portfolio.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="282" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgQaKRfPeOasANNC11z0MntH-Z38vuZC-QCeA1_4ARWZdTPVo6ETBVRvNuOr3u3gmSygfPTZ9xavX0P5xWCDV0vFmOGjSGaHwO9UiBMS9fVGnBXyQtc05ZTeuLOjBaLBZxXdX8M_v31kCc/s400/wars+portfolio.gif" width="400" /></a></div>
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Police of the World Unite! <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><br />
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No? </div>
<br />
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Ok, ummm... Dire Straits of the World Unite!<br />
<br />
<iframe allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="315" src="//www.youtube-nocookie.com/embed/I23LOMUl7BA?rel=0" width="420"></iframe>
<br />
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<a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I23LOMUl7BA">http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I23LOMUl7BA<o:p></o:p></a></div>
<br />
</div>
Related Post: <a href="http://monkeythrowdart.blogspot.com/2010/11/wars-r-us.html">Wars R Us</a>Unknownnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1956383507234767340.post-13914097119765713152013-08-25T15:23:00.001-04:002013-08-25T15:28:43.248-04:00Teflon Temps<br />
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I'm not sure if the statistic that says Kelly Services is
the second largest employer behind Walmart is really true. The New York Times published
this and then it was picked up by everyone else recently.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Here's<a href="http://washingtonexaminer.com/recovery-woes-americas-second-largest-employer-is-a-temp-agency/article/2532778"> a link to the link</a> to the source.</div>
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Regardless, I
thought I would look at some of the temp
agencies versus the S&P going back a couple of years.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The only criteria used was that the company
had to have stock price over $5 and a three month volume of over 100,000.<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgH5X1UzCLilanoUOi1KBDAWFduWNiqow7OHVsTwKOQWr2t0JctZIJC7Qy8hEYyyk6cRHx7axTEALbEjuIM36KL0burp8vV5LOJPTNo4Jd5o1qH2Lrg13NW6jYulXD7OcTdpM8sGbewuLU/s1600/combined.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="242" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgH5X1UzCLilanoUOi1KBDAWFduWNiqow7OHVsTwKOQWr2t0JctZIJC7Qy8hEYyyk6cRHx7axTEALbEjuIM36KL0burp8vV5LOJPTNo4Jd5o1qH2Lrg13NW6jYulXD7OcTdpM8sGbewuLU/s400/combined.gif" width="400" /></a></div>
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And a 5-year "look-back" at ASGN (the blue line loner above)...<br />
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Here's a list of these companies in order of best to worst two-year performance...<br />
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Symbol, Name, Last, 3-mo.Vol<br />
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ASGN, On Assignment, $30.71, 370,000</div>
TBI, True Blue, $25.76, 229,000<br />
KFRC, K-Force Inc., $16.98, 123,000<br />
MAN, Manpower Group, $67.01, 527,000<br />
RHI, Robert Half Int'l, $37.19, 1,000,000<br />
KELYA, Kelly Services, $18.86, 119,000<br />
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<o:p> </o:p>We'll see if this little group, including the high flying
ASGN, has more room to grow as "the economy continues to
improve".<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">I still can't say that with a straight face.</i></div>
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