Last Word on January Barometers, Super Bowl Indicators...Promise

Well, based on recent events it looks like 2011 will be a dart-fest. That means that whatever stock you throw a dart at will not only stick to the target, but will produce a profit. Uptrending markets have that affect, and the January Barometer and Super Bowl Indicator say so...so it must be true.

To re-cap, the January Barometer states that if the Dow Jones Industrial Average finishes the month of January with a gain, the market, too, will post a gain by year end 91% of the time. If the month of January is not so kind and the Dow posts a loss by month end, the market will tend to be bearish and post a loss 61% of the time.

Dow gains 315 points in January.

This is the first year that January has posted a gain since I have been dart-blogging . The last two years have produced losing Januarys and winning years which has dropped the 61% down a little. But with a winning January, how can we go wrong...91% accuracy is 91% accuracy. Of course it doesn't mean that it will be a smooth ride.

Adding more fuel to the absurd predictor list is the fact that two original NFL teams will battle it out on Sunday. Without an original AFL team, market up. You can blame '69 Jets for starting this whole thing.

Knowing this, "it's time to party like it's 1999" as the Prince of Darkness once said.

Bring the Tylenol.

Season of the Super Bowl Predictor

Since it is playoff time in the National Football League, it's time to whip out that "Super" stock market direction predictor devised by George Kester, the Martel Professor of Finance in Washington and Lee's Williams School of Commerce, Economics, and Politics. Apparently, George has plenty of time on his hands to enhance his skills as a naturally gifted dart thrower.

According to News @ Washington and Lee:

Here's what the Super Bowl Predictor maintains: If the team that wins the Super Bowl has its roots in the original National Football League, the market will increase. If the winning team was originally from the old American Football League, the market will decline.

See the full article here.

Sounds simple enough but let's check this out ourselves...



Looking at this data, 77.3% accuracy is correct. Let's break it down further. When an NFL team wins, based on data from the last 44 years, a correct market direction prediction occurred 87.5% of the time versus a correct market prediction of only 50% of the time if an AFL team wins.
This is eerily similar to the January barometer results. Maybe if these two got together and formed a new indicator ( let's call it the Janubowl Indicator), we might really be on to something.
I guess the next question would be, "What do Super Bowl winners have to do with stock market direction?" That easy...nothing. But looking at the track records of some of these market advisor gurus and financial 'experts' (you know, the professional dart throwers), I'll let January performance and Super Bowl results take the lead for a while.