Monkey Throw Dart: Sigmund's Permanent Advice (Or, My Flight to Safety)

Friday, March 29, 2013

Sigmund's Permanent Advice (Or, My Flight to Safety)


Believe it or not, I often get questions from the local simians regarding the best on-line broker to use.  The start of the discussion usually goes something like, "I'm thinking about opening an on-line trading account because I want to self-direct my IRA...".  Being an opportunist, I immediate ask them if they are associated with a Congressman, or know anyone in Washington, or the SEC, Goldman Sachs, CEO of any large corporation; or have any history of developing algorithms, know any "quants", have any unusual math skills, or understand the inner workings of high frequency trading, or have any inside information whatsoever.

  The answer is always no, because if it was yes, they probably wouldn't be asking me anything in the first place.  Once my rapid-fire interrogation is complete, I tell them that they should probably keep their money where it is.  I don't ask where it is, and I don't care.  I just hope the conversation will change to quadrocopters and that will be the end of it.
 
 
If the inquisitive simian is persistent and doesn't think my curt response is an insult to their intelligence, I follow up with, "Most monkeys lose money this way."...and then I segue into the possible range and speed of a radio-controlled quadrocopter.


Just because I've whip-sawed my way to profit using and abusing leveraged ETF's over the last four years, and occasionally make remarks about Facebook, Netflix, or my 2003/early 2004 "relationship" with ONCY, or my "right place at the right time" position with ZOOM in late 2003, or my sitting on cash during the latter part of 2008, or mention my seemingly clueless buying into several mutual funds post-Black Monday in 1987, doesn't make me an expert, nor does it give my advice on gambling in the stock casino any more credibility than anyone else's.

 Admittedly, my stories and logic behind every good trade have gone on and on ad nauseam.  Since when does a monkey have any self-awareness?   Also, notice how I didn't mention the bad trades here. Typical for traders (monkey or human)  to "accentuate the positive".

 Having no luck with avoiding the inevitable, I then have no choice but to whip out a chart similar to the one below.  This one, created by "Gumby" from Bogleheads.org, shows the historical performance of the Harry Brown inspired Permanent Portfolio which can be duplicated by dividing your capital into four equal chunks: stocks, long-term U.S. Treasury bonds, cash, and precious metals (gold).  This can be accomplished in multiple ways such as using the wide variety of ETF's available.
 

The need to research different brokerage firms becomes less important because once your self-directed "fund" is set up, you only need to adjust it once per year or use a 15/35 rule. If any part of the portfolio has dropped to less than 15% or grown to over 35% of the total, then you reset all four segments to 25%. 

 Of course,  a little gambling money can be put aside (to lose) if necessary.  And there you have it.  A simple solution to self-directing your own account, unless you actually can predict the future, or answer "yes" to any of the question listed in the first paragraph.

 I guess I could bring up Harry Browne's Permanent Portfolio right away instead of trying to ignore the question, but then we may never get to discuss quadrocopters.

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Do not confuse Harry Brown's PP with the mutual fund PRPFX which could also be a possible investment choice, but if you are interested in the real deal, check out the links below to get the full scope.

The Permanent Portfolio
Permanent Portfolio Discussion Forum
Quadrocopters (in case you didn't see the links above)