Monkey Throw Dart: Deciphering Cheetum Stock Picking Code

Saturday, January 15, 2011

Deciphering Cheetum Stock Picking Code

As much as I say that I avoid financial "noise", there are no less than fifty blogs and website in my favorites list. Usually I'll glance through many of them during the week and thoroughly read others depending on the subject matter. Since I try to stay focused, when I come across any reference to an interesting stock, ETF, mutual fund, or stock screening idea, I'll quickly write it down with some sort of primate shorthand that required deciphering days after.

I don't usually have paper napkin or pencil handy so I carve this information into the nearest tree trunk. There are several lines of scribble that need to be reviewed so here goes...

CIM4143CKDIV
What I think I was saying here is that one of my current favorite stocks, Chimera Investment Corp (CIM) is trading in the lower end of its current range (around $4.10) and might head back to the upper end of $4.30. With a current dividend yield of 16%, it may be time to hop the CIM train again.
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LMIvKitto?4556
This is either the address of that wily jaguar that's always causing trouble in the neighborhood (serious need for some dung-chucking here), or it's a reminder to keep an eye on Legg Mason (LM) which is currently trading at $36. Why? According to Ivan Kitov, "Currently, the model predicts a quick growth in the share price." Ok. Mechanomics. Cool.
Target price: $45-56.
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Forbesluv1LLLVRGY (luckily I wrote out the word Forbes)
Seems like at the beginning of every year, I check the Forbes Love Only One article.
A select group is asked to pick one stock that will outperform during the year. If the stock picker is correct, they come back and try again the next year, if they dare. The turnover rate appears to be high here. No surprise, but two primates, Douglas Sandler/Riverfront Investment Group and Jason Ronovech/Paradigm Capital Management are back for their third year. I know that there is really no such thing as a hot hand but maybe these guys are just good.

Sandler's pick for 2011 is L3 Communications (LLL), Ronovech is going with Verigy (VRGY) which brings me to...
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ErIngobRagh2to10und2
Obviously my 'love only one' for 2011 is Governor and Co of the Bank of Ireland (IRE). I am convinced that the impending financial conflagration will be kicked down the road for a while so a lottery ticket pick such as this is a dart thrower's delight.

I've been holding this one for a couple of months already but I think I can still get a better price, possible under $2 before the surge. Price target for 2011: $5 to $10. Pigs can fly, right?

If my price target is not hit this year I would expect a true lottery pay out of 44 cents on the dollar which would put the share price at about $1.10 by year end.

As the Irish say, "Tis better to spend money like there's no tomorrow than to spend tonight like there's no money!"

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wavx350 (finally, an easy one)
Wave Systems Corp (WAVX) has come up on a screen or two over the last year and is now in major hype mode. Also, it has been recently 'gumshoed'. The only way I would bite (or take the trade as some folks say) is to let it drift back to $3.50 and then re-evaluate from that point.

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As the tree carvings mount, I will be sure to use any tool available including the invisible ink, x-ray glasses , and de-coder ring to pass these dart-jabbed stock picks on to you.