CMI Says...

...back to the QLD. Surprisingly, with the help of Friday's afternoon comeback, a weak signal to buy the QLD was triggered so at Monday's open the QLD will replace the QID. I say weak signal but that is only my interpretation and doesn't mean much in terms of a final result. Maybe 'early' is a better word...or timely. With this system, you are either in or in. The CMI 1.0, which had some ARMS index computations in the mix, tended to sit out during key trends. I made the decision when overhauling the system to always hold a trade even during consolidation or range bound periods. This can be frustrating but I'd rather be set up for the next big move...and I like to help keep my broker driving to the office in style.

Actually, this will be the eighth trade of the year. The average number of CMI 2.0 trades since 2005 has been 9.2 so we are not deviating from the norm. Also, winning trades have averaged 40 days and losing trades have averaged 32 days. Winning trade percentage sits at 50% not including this last trade. This all good news because these numbers fall right in line with what is expected. This year reminds me of 2006 in some ways. The final result for the CMI 2.0 for that year was just over 35%.

Does anyone else hear the ghost of Don Ho in the background. Must be the Director of Marketing celebrating statehood for Hawaii.

Any excuse to imbibe in the 'tiny bubbles'.