An End of Year "Buy" Signal

I was planning on hanging from my favorite branch until the New Year's day, but the Cheetum Market Indicator, true to form, came to life and flashed the buy signal at the last moment. I had expected this and made it known back on December 20th that the probability was good that buying the QLD would happen soon after the last false signal. That is why I held my position and will continue to hold until the 'no trade' or the 'sell' signal is given.

It would be nice if this wasn't another false signal but you never know. Second guessing this indicator is not wise even though I put in a quick straddle yesterday when I bought the QID, then quickly sold out of it this morning when the market looked like it was going to run.

A list of every trade using this method will be available as soon as I decide the best way to post it. The actual mechanical buy/sells will be posted along side my actual trades. Setting stops, out-guessing or just not trusting the method will cause some divergence in results...hopefully for the best. A good example of this was illustrated during the volatile 'sell' period between October 16th and December 12th. Strictly trading the signals without using stops or some good judgement would have yielded a loss of around 6%. Trading the method during this period would have most likely yielded a 5 to 50% gain. No way of really knowing as this was a very unusual period. Hindsight, in these cases, is 20/20. To be fair, I'll leave the gain and loss speculation alone.

Strategically, trailing the initial move up and selling at the first peak would have given a 10% gain.

Trailing and holding at half the gain would have given a 5% gain.

Buying back in to the QID when the stochastics looked oversold could have yielded a 60% gained if timed correctly. This is all speculation and this type of mental paper trading reminds me of another Jesse Livermore quote:

It is like the old story of the man who was going to fight a duel the next day. His second asked him, "Are you a good shot?" "Well," said the duelist, "I can snap the stem of a wine glass at twenty paces," and he looked modest. "That's all very well," said the unimpressed second. "But can you snap the stem of the wineglass while the wineglass is pointing a loaded pistol straight at your heart?"