The market opened up higher this morning so I took advantage and got out of the false signal trade with barely a scratch. A 1.6% loss is a victory here. The mechanical system got out with a 1.2% loss. Year to date results are posted in the left sidebar. I'm almost certain that when the market chooses a direction, this system will catch fire and be off and running. As annoying as these false signals can be, the losses have been kept in check for more than 18 months. That is the main reason I did not hesitate to take the loss and realign with the CMI. We are all in cash again but the CMI is already buzzing and will no doubt send another buy signal very soon.
The January effect says that there is now a 61% chance that the market tanks for the next eleven months. The Dow target of 8776 was not even close to today's close.
Since it is the end of the month and Superbowl weekend, the monkey throws the dart at gold finishing the year between $1200 to $2000 per ounce.
No Superbowl dart throwing although everyone in the rainforest loves an underdog.
Friday, January 30, 2009
Market Mercy
