Tempering Enthusiasm

"The safest way to double your money is to fold it over once and put it in your pocket."

~Kin Hubbard


Starting up this contraption after several days of downtime can be a chore. Most of the bugs have been cleaned out of the hard drive except I keep getting some intermittent groups of symbols on the screen like this one...

-------m------m------

(o o)
(~)

I'll have to work around them for now.

I had made a few cave drawings during shut-down mode that resemble crude statistical calculations based on CMI 2.0 history. It always important to keep perspective even though the current 30% year-to-date gain tends to cloud the gray matter a little.

Even so, the CMI giveth and also takeths away. Five years of history indicates that it takeths away only one quarter of what it giveths. That's the good news. Knowing this, there should be no surprises if a 7% retracement occurs. I wouldn't expect this to happen any time soon, but statistically speaking, nothing goes up in a straight line...not even last year's massive 120% QLD trade. (I'll be plugging that one for a while, so get used to it.)

Current market conditions are...umm...

/~\
C oo
_( ^)
/ ~\

Right. Current market conditions are exactly what they are.

I can tell you this. The bull is in the left sidebar which means the current QLD trade is still long and strong. The CMI 2.0 is still pumping out those squiggly lines that look like they are peaking again, but continue to flash the "buy" sign. Unless there is a giant one day sell off, this should continue into next week.