The only reason I spend time at MonkeyThrowDart is to test a
system that is supposed to find a good trend and follow it. That's it, nothing more. Even so, I am a monkey so I can't help but
throw a few random predictions in the mix that are usually unrelated to the
current trading system. Instead of burying the losing predictions in the
quicksand and touting the lucky guesses, I like to review as many as possible
just to verify that I don't know much of anything, and that I can be just as
accurate with predictions about the market as I am about whether a flipped coin
will land on heads or tails. The coins
have been flipped and here are the results...
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Future Whats?
So without further
ado, here is the short list of lottery ticket picks, or future stars if they
happen to double in price. I'll settle for any double digit gain in the
next five months. How's that for a compromise?
I actually expected these lucky pics to extend their sweet
2012 performance. It just goes to show
you that "market is as market does", and what might have looked good
in the past doesn't necessarily mean that the future holds the same fate. Most of these future stars entered the earths
atmosphere and promptly burst into flames as can be seen by the current percent
change since July...+11.5%, -27.5%, -35.8%, +28.8% -40.0%, +4.6%, -31.1%, -36.7%. No
need to attach the stock symbols here; you get the drift.
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"Here We Go Again" Hurricane Pics
This year I have some
real winners. Even if the hurricane part doesn't work out, the swell created by
a rising market over the next few months will help propel these stocks upward.
A rising tide lifts all boats as they say.
I was more than impressed with the results of this years
hurricane wish list. When you set the
bar really low, good things can happen.
Here's the gist...
MTRX: flat
CPB: currently up 6%
WM: a stomach churning 10% dip that recovered in December;
what a waste.
Luckily this is Waste
Management.
NUE: +15% if you held on tight.
SRCL: nice little range between 90 and 96.
Timing it right would give you a 5% gain.
GNCR: +50%
after an
easy climb to +72%
GV: a slow and steady 8% loss.
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Strangling NVDA
Sometimes I think that
options are just a more exotic way for the market to take my money. With that
attitude, I sometimes straddle or strangle a stock that is approaching
earnings. This way I can make a profit without knowing or caring which
direction the stock price will move.
I straddled and strangled NVDA on two occasions this year
just to show that you can play with fire and not get burned too badly.
This is a good options strategy if you are
just starting out trading options because it limits your losses (usually) and
provides winners just over 50% of the time; at least it has over the last few
years.
The August example trade resulted
in a 70% gain in just few days.
At the
next earning announcement, the trade resulted in a 3% loss. Both trades have
two posts each; the set-up and the result a few days later.
Just scroll a little to find them if
interested.
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October Surprise
Looks like I have
developed the need to throw the dung, uhhh, I mean dart, once again and predict that the S&P
will rise to 1520 by the end of October. That would be a 5.5% gain.
Well it would have risen if the market didn't drop in
October like a...a...
yeah, like that.
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Who Makes Money?
Leave it to the
long-winded James Altucher to hit the nail on the head as to who actually makes
money on Wall Street.
I'll summarize with a list...
1. People who hold forever.
2. People who hold for a trillionth of a second.
3. People with inside information.
4. Congressman
5. People who take fees.
No prediction here, just reiterating. I can only add that lucky timing also works
but eventually un-lucky timing catches up to those who think they are smarter
than they really are. Hmmm, I can't seem
to find a place to put MensaMonkey.
Maybe this is where lucky timing comes in...and luckily MM's ego was
disabled months ago with some simple code written into the program...01110101101011001HaYuDoNtBaNaZz0110111001101010101000110.
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Forget about WTC building #7 and its freakishly demolition-like
demise. The truth about 9/11 can be found only by
following the money trail.
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The Little Coal Short That Could
... since I usually review some of my "out
on a limb" predictions at the end of the year, I'll pad the list by
putting out a short list of coal stocks that will run back to the coal mine
where they came from after Obummer is re-elected today.
ACI Current Price 8.34, Target Price 6.00-6.50
ANR Current Price 9.36, Target Price 7.00-7.50
BTU Current Price 28.52, Target Price 22.00-23.00
JRCC Current Price 4.63, Target Price 3.00-3.50
Sometimes it's just too easy, as long as you follow through
with some action, shorting action in this case.
Not much of a limb here as any of these would have made an easy and
profitable trade as your choice of candidates was between a lump of coal
and another slightly darker lump of coal.
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Well there you have it.
Maybe I'll leave the predictions to the professionals who make their
living being wrong as I obviously cannot predict the future with any consistency. Maybe I'll look for some sharper darts, or a larger dartboard.
