What a "Tell" Can Tell

Just like every poker player, every trader has a "tell". A tell is subtle but detectable change in a player's behavior or demeanor that gives clues to that player's assessment of his hand. If someone were to look over my shoulder while I am looking at a stock chart, over time that someone would notice that I tend to pull back charts to longer time periods if a trade isn't going my way. Normally, I look at a six month chart when swing trading individual equities. If the price does something unexpected, like going the wrong way fast, rather than pull the trigger and get out I will review the one year chart, then the two year chart. When I start looking at a decade of candlesticks you know I've got trouble.

Knowing your own "tell" can be useful because if you are the type that can learn from history, your "tell" actions will be the signal to make a change. And if you heed the warning early enough, chances are you will have saved yourself time and trading capital.

On a similar note, I came across this 100 year chart of the Dow posted on Barry Ritholtz's blog, where he shares his macro perspective on the capital markets and the economy.




Looking at this, it makes me wonder if I should hold the QID till 2012!