Monkey Throw Dart: Message From the Dashboard Dummy Lights

Tuesday, November 30, 2010

Message From the Dashboard Dummy Lights

I would rather hold this QLD trade for a few more years but the new, "under construction" CMI dashboard is all lit up in red, so the QLD will be sold and the QID will be bought at tomorrow's open.

Possibly another market head fake is in store and the QQQQ's will continue moving higher or this could be the start of a correction that may be more than just another desert mirage. Historically, the CMI signals have only been 50% correct. The upside is that the reward for a correct signal still outweighs the risk of a wrong signal by 3.5 to 1. Not a bad deal if a consistent flip of the coin is maintained.

Technically it looks like the market wants to roll over, and the dollar, as seen in the chart, could continue it's climb. Maybe the dollar and the SPX will kiss at the August SPX high.

dollar