Enter the Ponzi Schemer

Since I will be somewhere back in the early days of the twenty-first century reviewing some put/call data this weekend, and backtesting the latest update to the Cheetum Market Indicator, currently referred to as Sigmund's Excellent Adventure, I'll leave you in the good claws of a frequent jungle dweller known as "Ponzi Schemer".

Ponzi trades the 2x Q's with a little known system called market intuition or possibly some sort of ancient Yanomamo secret, and has made some well-timed market calls over the past year resulting in year-to-date gains that are rivaling the current dart throwing method posted in the left sidebar. Apparently, Ponzi is willing to share a few morsels from the T-Day feast.

Here's the latest from the Sage of Market Sentiment, the Poet of Prognostication, and the Master of all things Casual Friday...

Well Siggy,

I figured I would touch base, since I had some spare time after watching all the "turkeys" try to "gobble" up profits near the potential end of the current trade.
After being on the sidelines and exercising excruciating patience, I decided to get a "leg" up on the QLD a short while ago, and after today I am up about 3%.

I really didn't have my "heart" in the trade, but couldn't stand it any longer and had to stick my "neck" out. If I had listened to my staff and stayed with their system I would still be in cash "stuffing" my coffers. But enough "overindulgence", as this holiday season is about to cause me "indigestion" already.

The real reason for this email: Beware! Beware!! Beware!!! We could be in the midst of a "spin a little" move. Not worth "winging" it - possibly losing more profit than warrants the risk of remaining in the QLD trade. I will stay in the trade and see what happens until some time next week, but if certain trends continue, I'm out.
The pilejumpers have subsided in number and the people remaining are those who have already been in for a while.

I thought I would "carve" out some "food for thought" for your "consumption".

1. On the investor sentiment front, things are clearly leveling off. In 4 week
averages from 9/28 at 63.3%, 10/26 at 62.7%, and 11/23 at 62.4%.
2. Bull/bear % reached a YTD high on 11/16 at 73.56% and down 11/23 at 72.10%
3. Over the last 4 weeks, bull/bear ratio has climbed from 1,87 to 2.58 with no
effect on prices.
4. Over the past 4 weeks, QQQQ is up only 0.07%.
5. Over the past 4 weeks put/call ratios are up a steady 3%.

There are other sentimental and technical reasons to keep an eye out in the coming week or so for a clear direction, which I believe will reveal itself soon. I just thought I would give some theories that you may not have or maybe don't give a "rat's ass" about. Could it be just everyone "loosening their belts" and getting ready for "the next course" or could be the sound of pilejumpers "throwing up" on their shoes?

Aren't Turkeys supposed to be the dumbest? Maybe not.

But what I think doesn't matter, does it?

Ponzi