Monkey Throw Dart: Good Trade Gone South

Wednesday, March 16, 2011

Good Trade Gone South

When actual volatility exceeds expected volatility, the trade profile (in red) is typical. In hindsight, it seems kind of ridiculous not to take a percentage of the gains off the table, but doing so using a systematic approach would result in reduced gains in longer trending markets. Multiple buy/sell signals would occur, in whipsaw fashion, as price swing tolerance decreases.

The white horizontal line represents the trigger area for setting a stop that would have occurred if the gains rose to that level. A 22% gain receives no more attention than 2% gain, in this example.

qld trade profile