Monkey Throw Dart: #IPO: The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly

Friday, September 13, 2013

#IPO: The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly


An initial public offering (IPO) or stock market launch is a type of public offering where shares of stock in a company are sold to the general public, on a securities exchange, for the first time.

 Can you make a fortune investing in an IPO?  Absolutely!
Can you lose a fortune investing in an IPO? Absolutely!

 Glad I cleared that up.  It's always easier when dealing in absolutes.

 I never will call a pound sign (#) a hash tag, but with the news that Twitter will soon join the fun at the NYSE or NASDAQ, I guess I could adjust.  I won't go into the details of why I think Twitter will actually be a great investment; just google (it's a verb now) "Twitter IPO" and sort through the pros and cons.  You still have plenty of time to decide if Twitter, stock symbol: ???? or ???, will fall into one of the three categories listed below.

 The Good

 The only way to make it into this elite group is to approach the "10-bagger" status... an investment that appreciates to 10 times its initial purchase price.

Whole Foods Markets (WFM): 1000% growth in just over six years.
Qualcomm (QCOM):  1000% growth in six years
Express Scripts (ESRX): 1000% growth in four and a half years.
Wellpoint Inc.(WLP): 1000% growth in four years.
Starbucks (SBUX):  1000% growth in three years.
Yahoo (YHOO):  1000% growth in two years.
Amazon (AMZN): 1000% growth in one year.
Ebay (EBAY): 1000% growth in six months.
Google (GOOG): a meager 900% growth since it's 2004 debut.

 Sure, except for Wellpoint and Google, these IPO's came out in the roaring 90's, but we're in the roaring "teens" now, right.  It's smooth sailing except for the expected total market collapse in 2015...or an asteroid strike...still not clear on that yet.

 
The Bad

 For the "bad", words don't do the stock performance justice...

 Vonage (VG)
 

 Shanda (GAME)






Blackstone Group (BX)...where getting back to even would be a victory.

 

 And then there are the "dot.coms"...Pets.com, Webvan.com, Kozmo.com, eToys.com, just to name a few of the dear departed.  Consider your investment the price of an education in the subject of what not to invest in.

 
The Ugly

 Well, I'll just put a recent one (Facebook) into this category.  Ugly, yes, but maybe if we slap enough lipstick on this pig...

 

 
Data provided by Bloomberg.