Monkey Throw Dart: Building the Perfect Beast

Thursday, October 15, 2009

Building the Perfect Beast

frankI will probably get out of the QLD trade that I bought into last Monday as the CMI 2.0 is giving signals to get out. I have gained just under 10% using this new, untested method.

Testing a new market direction indicator can be tricky since you must follow three steps to get it right:

1. Plan first, then gather data;
2. Decipher data so that it provides useful output (buy/sell signals);
3. Backtest and 'forward' test. Just because it looks impressive historically doesn't mean that it will provide useful output in the future.

Currently, I am somewhere between steps 2 and 3. I will provide more indepth information over the next few days. The estimated time of completion for CMI 2.0 is late November.

In the meantime, the CMI is hibernating which means no trading for now. I will post the updated trading results in the left sidebar after I close the current trade.