Looking Forward Using the Past

If you could pick all the significant swing points from this year and had bought the QLD or the QID depending on the direction your total gain for the year would be somewhere around 233%. Not a bad "take" for 16 trades and a 93% win rate.

Several more hours have gone into creating a method to pick these swing points...before they happen. All the data crunching has pushed me away from the short term trends and closer to longer term holds. Long term at the moment looks like two months on average. Back testing the current system (aptly named CMI 2.0) for the first 10 months of this year yields a gain of about 120% give or take after only five trades.



This was not exactly what I was looking for since this type of trading requires alot of faith during intra-trade swings. On the other hand, the CMI was originally created as a replacement for those mutual funds that could not get out of their own way during tough times. Safely generating positive returns for your large trading $'s was the goal all along.

Backtesting is painstakingly slow but the rainy season in the jungle is upon us so there is plenty of times to review those charts with the squiggely lines.