CMI Quarterly Review 6/10

When people are free to do as they please, they usually imitate each other.
~Eric Hoffer, The True Believer


Here's a quick and dirty update for the CMI 2.0 as of June 30th, 2010:

Quarter-to-Date
-7.6%

*Year-to Date
29.5%
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Total # of trades since Jan. 2005:
53
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*Cumulative % gain to % loss ratio from Jan. 2005 to Present:
4 : 1


This is sweet. For every dollar lost, four are gained. I like to call this the inverted lottery stat.

*Results include current QID trade as of May 20, 2010.
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*% of trades resulting in a gain:
52.8%


This goes to show that you can be a loser half the time and still do well so wear that big "L" on your forehead with pride, like I do.
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If you believe the back testing, here are the year by year results...

2005: 35.9%
2006: 23.0%
2007: 26.1%
2008: 106.3%
2009: 128.2%

Some more historical CMI information, posted in April, can be found here.

The last three months have been anything but a smooth ride, and at the same time exposed some weakness in the CMI indicator. The recent attempt to add my ROC (rate of change) indicator that I humbly call the "FrankenTurbo" cause the CMI to act as though it had just come back from an ipecac chugging contest. For now, FrankenTurbo will be fed to that python that just moved into the neighborhood, and we will let the CMI prove itself without any further intervention for the next few months.