Monkey Throw Dart: Return of the 2% Solution

Sunday, September 18, 2011

Return of the 2% Solution

2 percent give or take
If I was challenged to buy a stock at the open with the goal of achieving a consistent 2% gain, I would look for the most consistent stocks over a short period of time that achieved something close to that result plus or minus a few tenths. Humor me and let's use 1.7% as the low side of the goal tolerance.

Some leveraged ETF's have results that are off the charts when looking at the difference between high of the day and the opening price, but surprisingly, at this moment in time, the ETF's sampled for this challenge did not match the day-to-day consistent 1.7% goal compared to the sample of individual stocks.

Based on the most recent one-month history, these stocks and ETF had a 1.7% or greater difference between the opening price and the high of the day at least 86% of the time, or 19 out of the last 22 days.

CPLA, Capella Education Company
GLNG, Golar LNG, Ltd.
SNDA, Shanda Interactive Entertainment, Ltd.
KITD, KIT Digital Inc.
DRN, Direxion Daily Real Estate Bull 3X Shrs

There's no guarantee that historical performance and future performance will agree. Even so, this is the performance trend I would use if I accepted the 2% challenge.

The real trap is that there will most likely be a high winning percentage, but it's the one or two losing trades out of ten that will burn you every time without some sort of risk management in place.

You will really do well if you know which way the market will move right after the open, or during the day. That was my attempt at dry humor.

I might track these stocks during the week to see what kind of horrific results are attained. Stay tuned.

Related post: 2% Solution