Chimp or Chump Scenario

Just so you don't think I have been slacking, construction continues on the new Cheetum Market Indicator. Currently I am running four scenarios of the same basic system. The market had give a few months of downtime by providing a 'no-brainer" uptrend. This allowed me to make several changes or attempted changes without concern for market direction change or potentially melding two systems and getting the signals all wrong. The heart of the original CMI is still beating but is lying outside the body on the operating table right now. Great now I've got that visual stuck in my cranium.

Last week provided the first challenge in a while because a market "shift" made itself known with a set of down days consisting of a couple of red candles and a large gap down that made up most of its losses within that day. Even though the four CMI scenarios mentioned above are different, they are all part of the main system which wouldn't radically change the end result, except for scenario #4...and of course I think this is the best of the best at the moment.

Scenario #4 uses price change along with new rate-of-change data which are set in motion by volatility zones, both major and minor, that act as the master switch that turn these smaller signals on and off. Sounds like a bunch of monkey mumbo-jumbo but I'll document this more clearly, if it works correctly, in the future.

With the recent downturn, only one scenario is flashing a buy signal. The others, especially #4 is not buying into the recent downturn and is holding steady in the QLD trade. Originally, $51.13 for the QQQQ would have triggered a sell of the QLD but the CMI in it's current 'condition' is trying to tell me that this is a minor (recoverable) dip and not a major (expected) downtrend.

This means that the CMI, if correct, may have a deeper sense of market action and could potentially anticipate a whipsawing market and minimize losses, or prevent low probability (of success) trades from taking place.

Long story short: Still holding the QLD. Rather than splitting the difference, I'm opting for the optimal strategy and testing it real time.

As I always say, "Be A Chimp, Not a Chump". Wow... check out the alliterative style!

Anyway, time will tell.